NIT Tournament Preview: ‘Noles Face Valparaiso in Second Round
By Kelvin Hunt
The NIT Tournament second round will feature No. 4 seed FSU traveling to face No. 1 seed Valparaiso on Thursday night at 7 p.m.
The NIT Tournament second round will feature a middle tier major in FSU taking on a mid-major conference regular season champion. We have familiar questions like would FSU basketball dominate the Horizon League? Could Valparaiso compete in the ACC and even be a middle tier team?
One game on Thursday night will give us a glimpse of what could be. Alas, it’s only one night in the NIT Tournament.
The ‘Noles will travel to Indiana to take on Valparaiso who only has one home loss all season. The ‘Noles haven’t fared as well on the road this season, going (4-7) with losses coming at Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, Clemson and Iowa.
Five of those teams are playing in the NCAA Tournament (counting Louisville who is sitting out with a self-imposed ban).
The Valparaiso play at the “ARC” which holds a maximum of 5,000 fans. That’s not a ton of people, but I’m sure it can get raucous in there under the right circumstances. I think having someone from arguably the best conference in the nation would fit that bill.
We’re not going to rehash everything about Valparaiso and what they bring to the table. If you haven’t read it, check out the link below and come back to read what FSU needs to do to win on Thursday night.
Related Story: Things Valparaiso Does Well
This game is going to be about three things regarding FSU:
- Avoiding Careless Turnovers
- Making Free Throws
- Playing solid defense
The ‘Noles have won four of their last five and have done a great job of not turning the ball over. However, that has not been the case over the season as they have averaged 13 turnovers per game.
That’s good for 204th nationally and awful. Valparaiso isn’t much better averaging 12.8 turnovers per game which is good for 179th nationally.
The ‘Noles have won four of their last five games and averaged 10.6 turnovers per game. Valparaiso is an excellent rebounding bunch, especially defensive rebounding, which could limit FSU to only one shot per possession.
The ‘Noles can’t afford to give possessions away with careless turnovers against a team that plays excellent defense.
The free throw shooting on the year has not been good. The ‘Noles make 68.9 percent of their free throws. Again, can’t give away points.
The ‘Noles shot an uncharacteristically high 87.5 percent (21 of 24) from the charity stripe in the first round against Davidson. That needs to continue.
If the bigger guards of FSU can drive the line (we believe they can), the ‘Noles can have the advantage there, they’ll need to convert at the free throw line while also potentially causing foul trouble for Valparaiso and their 6’10” big man Vashil Fernandez.
The ‘Noles playing solid defense is the arguably the most important thing. Leonard Hamilton squads used to be known for defense, but that has gone out the window in recent years. They’ve allowed multiple teams to shoot over 50 percent from the floor this season.
However, in recent games the defense has seemed to have been turned it up a notch with the guards playing better on the ball defense and not allowing teams to drive the lane with olay defense.
The ‘Noles held a very offensive efficient team in Davidson to 41.9 percent from the floor. Davidson did most of their damage from beyond the arc (13 of 33) at 39.4 percent.
Valparaiso does shoot the ball well from long-range, so the big men will need to box out as 31 percent of their rebounds come on the offense glass.
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Conclusion
If these two teams played 10 times, who would win the majority of the games? I would have to say Valparaiso because they have been the more consistent team, particularly on defense this season.
The ‘Noles will have the advantage in guard play as Dwayne Bacon and Malik Beasley are big and play even bigger as both can rebound well.
Both teams crash the boards on the offensive glass. Valparaiso is a collective better free throw shooting team.
Offensively, I think the ‘Noles are more consistent with Valparaiso relying more on three-point shooting.
If the Crusaders have an off night shooting from long-range, I like the ‘Noles chances as they should have the advantage in the paint aside from Fernandez.
If the ‘Noles are able to get defensive rebounds and get out in transition, I like their chances much better than in the half-court setting and winning this second round NIT Tournament game.