Why FSU Needs the Old Winston Against Georgia Tech’s Keep-Away Game

In preparing for FSU’s upcoming ACC Championship Game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, you’ve no doubt been inundated with commentary about the Yellow Jackets’ triple option attack, and how the ‘Noles stack up against the scheme, the same one they faced against The Citadel in the season’s second week.

In that game, the Bulldogs generated 21 first downs and were able to hold onto the ball long enough to provide the Seminoles with only eight possessions (technically, Florida State had the ball nine times, but the final “drive” consisted of a one-play kneel-down to ice the 37-12 FSU victory).

You can expect more of the same from GT on Saturday night– and it’s largely the reason Paul Johnson’s squad is 10-2 and coming off a victory over No. 9 Georgia in Athens. Tech will seek to stifle the ‘Nole offense by keeping it off the field, and it’s been one of the nation’s best at doing just that this season, as GT has the third-best time of possession in the nation.

How? The Jackets lead the ACC in first downs per game, at 24.7, as the option helps them stay ahead of the chains and deal with mostly third and short and third and managable situations. This is especially important for Georgia Tech this weekend, as it may well be without its top receiver, DeAndre Smelter, who ranks seventh in the ACC in receiving yards.

How does Tech create these favorable third-down opportunities? By efficiently running the rock. The Jackets boast the No. 4 rushing offense in the country, good enough for tops in the ACC.

And Tech makes the most of these third-down chances, too– literally, the most, as the Yellow Jackets have the best third-down conversion rate in the country, at 57.43%. That, of course, means that teams’ best opportunities to get the GT offense off the field have failed most of the time. Why has it been their best shot? Because Georgia Tech simply doesn’t give the ball away. It’s tied for the ninth-best turnover margin in the country.

What does all of this mean? It means that FSU will see limited possessions, in all likelihood. So it will need Heisman Trophy winner and recently minted two-time All-ACC QB Jameis Winston to avoid the poor-judgmemnt he’s shown throughout much of the 2014 season, particularly early in games. Winston’s 17 picks are the most in the ACC, and if he throws some early, as has been his tendency, he’ll play right into the Jackets’ plans to sit on a lead and bleed the clock.

And don’t think GT won’t capitalize on prospective Winston miscues. The Yellow Jackets are tied for ninth in the country in interceptions, with 17. The only ACC team with more is Louisville, the national leader, which picked off Winston thrice.

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Winston is certainly aware of his imperfections. After his career-high four interceptions against Florida on Saturday, the 25-0 Winston confessed: “I know I’ve got to get better at my performance, so I can lead this team in a better way.” He’s saying the right things. Now he needs to do the right things.

It’s all spelled out right there, and Winston seems to know it: FSU does not have the luxury of another interception-riddled performance, the type that has seen Winston picked multiple times in three of the Seminoles’ last five games, for the Seminoles may not see the ball enough to overcome such mistakes. The ‘Noles need vintage Winston, 2013-Clemson Winston, big-game Winston. And they may just get it, because, fortunately for Florida State, this is a pretty damn big game. At stake: a spot in the first-ever College Football Playoff.