2014-2015 FSU Basketball Preview

FSU Basketball tips off its season this afternoon against Manhattan at the revamped Donald L. Tucker Center, here’s ChopChat’s 2014-15 FSU basketball preview.

The ACC just keeps getting bigger — and tougher — when it comes to basketball. Say what you want about the conference’s standing in football, but without a doubt the dissolution of the Big East has made the Atlantic Coast Conference the premiere basketball league in the college ranks.

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Stalwarts like UNC and Duke have been joined by the likes of Syracuse and Louisville and now the conference has some of the best top-end programs in the country. It’s good news for ACC basketball fans. It’s bad news for FSU.

Before expansion FSU was vying for the the third spot in the conference with regularity. Sure, beating UNC and Duke was challenging — though FSU managed it and won a conference tournament title during the 2011-12 season — but the Seminoles were still finding themselves in the top three or four ACC schools regularly come the end of the year.

Now third or fourth becomes fifth or sixth.

Or lower.

The last couple of season FSU has taken a step back. After building one of the best teams of his tenure for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons — the Seminoles finished with a sweet sixteen bid and a conference tournament title during those two seasons — Florida State slipped over the past couple of years and missed the NCAA tournament both years.

A lot of that was just youth. FSU has had very few upperclassmen the past couple of seasons as Leonard Hamilton has broken in large classes filled with young players. As a result the Seminoles have taken their lumps.

This should be the year FSU grows up though.

Those freshmen from a couple years ago are juniors now. FSU’s top recruit from a season ago is finally on the floor and Kiel Turpin — who many expected to play a big role last season — is finally healthy and has received another year of eligibility.

This might be the toughest conference competition FSU has ever faced, but this is also a much better team than Florida State has put on the court the last couple of years too.

New Faces: Gone are G Ian Miller and F Okaro White, here is G Xavier Rathan-Mayes and F Phil Cofer.

Perhaps nobody on FSU’s team will be more ready for the season opener than XRM. The freshman guard originally received attention for his close connection to Andrew Wiggins. When Rathan-Mayes chose FSU, many hoped Wiggins would follow. He didn’t. The phenom instead chose Kansas while Rathan-Mayes was forced to miss his first season due to academic eligibility issues stemming from the prep academy he played at during high school. A year later, Wiggins is in the pros while XRM is just beginning his collegiate career. XRM promises to be a dynamic scorer who can shoot or get to the rim, it will be his defensive development that Hamilton and his staff spend the most time on early.

Cofer, a 6-8 forward, may have a ways to go before he can replace White’s offensive acumen, but his ability to attack the boards and get rebounds should pay dividends early. The Georgia-native will likely see plenty of time in reserve duty this season as he works himself into the flow of the college game.

In addition to Cofer and Rathan-Mayes, 6-4 combo-guard Robbie Berwick is a freshman from Atascadero, CA who has a high basketball IQ while Michael Saxton and Dayshawn Watkins are both juco-transfers looking to add key depth in their first season.

Key Returners: Aaron Thomas is without a doubt the most dynamic player returning this season. The 6’4 junior has displayed the ability to score at will and his defense is amongst the best in the ACC. It will be Thomas’ show this season as he looks to be the primary scoring option.

Montay Brandon — who can do everything from run the point to come in and give you minutes as an under-sized four — may be the most important player when it comes to FSU’s success though. When Brandon plays with confidence he has shown the ability to drive to the hoop and force his will. It’s just a matter of Brandon finding that confidence with regularity– if he can, he has the ability to be a dynamic presence in FSU’s backcourt.

In addition to Thomas and Brandon, G Devon Bookert can run the point and shoot the three while big men Boris Bojanovsky and Michael Ojo — all of these guys are juniors — should continue to develop inside for FSU.

Then there’s Kiel Turpin, who, after missing last year, should provide a veteran presence — as well as another 7-foot body — under the hoop for the Seminoles.

Biggest Question: Can FSU Win a Year Early?

This team is built for next year. Thomas, Brandon, Bookert, Ojo and Bojonovsky are all juniors, Rathan-Mayes is just a freshman and FSU has one of the top recruiting classes in the entire nation due on campus for next season.

The question is not will FSU be a good team– they will be. It’s will they be a good team this year?

A lot of that comes with getting a fast start. It’s absolutely essential that FSU fares well during its non-conference schedule to start the season, because once ACC play begins the going gets tough. If the Seminoles can handle their business early and then improve on their conference mark from last season — FSU finished 9-9 last year in the ACC — then they should have no problem ending their tournament drought.

More specifically, if FSU can shore up some of its defensive issues early on and revitalize the “junkyard dog” mentality that was synonymous with the program’s success a few years ago, then this group should have the offensive power to finish in the top half of the conference.

If not, and the defensive issues continue, it could be a long year.

Prediction: At ACC Media Days FSU was picked to finish 8th in the conference. That probably isn’t too far off. Florida State should have little trouble doing well with its non-conference schedule early on, but once conference play starts the Seminoles are likely to be a middle-of-the-pack team.

Still, it should be enough to punch FSU’s NCAA Tournament Ticket and get the Seminoles into the quarterfinals of the ACC Tourney.

First Game: Today, Manhattan at FSU, Donald L. Tucker Center, 1 PM

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