Florida State vs. Miami Preview

Our Florida State vs. Miami Preview takes a look at how things are coming together for Saturday, when the Seminoles head down to South Florida, putting their winning streak on the line when they take on rival Miami.

Florida State vs. Miami Preview

The ‘Noles look to sustain success in Miami this Saturday where they haven’t been beaten by the ‘Canes since 2004. The result of this match up could have a significant impact on the playoff race if the ‘Noles slip up.

Fired Up

Despite a 25-game winning streak, the ‘Noles didn’t look entirely convincingly last Saturday when they hosted now 4-6 Virginia. The final score between the two teams was 34-20, with FSU coming out on top. Why should this be mentioned?

The lack of a truly dominant performance against a quality opponent this season, coupled with Saturday’s showing, found the Seminoles falling from second to third in Tuesday night’s CFB Playoff Committee rankings below a one-loss Oregon team. What does this mean?

“When this bus rolls into town, Hell comes with it.” These words from one of Jimbo Fisher’s more notable speeches may very well be in full effect as the Seminoles prepare for the Hurricanes. This game should serve as a golden opportunity for the ‘Noles to regain some of the respect that many feel their undefeated season calls for. A statement game against the Hurricanes could very well be just what the doctor ordered, as Florida State sits as just one to two point favorites against the three-loss Hurricane team.

When the ‘Noles have the Ball:

A healthy dose of Karlos Williams, Mario Pender, and potentially Dalvin Cook could do wonders in taking the pressure off of quarterback Jameis Winston. Mario Pender has watched from the sideline since FSU’s game against Syracuse. Williams is seemingly accepting the role as the power-back for the ‘Noles. That said, having not one, but two legitimate homerun threats in the backfield for the first time in over a month should cause fits for any defense, when you consider who is behind center.

Miami checks in at No. 11 in total defense, giving up just 312.4 yards per game. However, their run defense has been where the ‘Canes have been susceptible. Miami is giving up 131.9 yards per game on the ground, No. 31 in rushing defense among FBS programs. This is where the addition of Mario Pender in the backfield as a respectable threat comes into play. Recent history shines on FSU’s success at running the ball against the ‘Canes as just last year Miami, FL native Devonta Freeman went off in the Gameday showdown with 176 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns.

The success of this three-headed dragon in the backfield will predicate how Winston will be able to throw the ball. If the Seminoles can get it done on the ground, this opens up the play-action to big-time pass catchers like Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary. On the flip-side, if the ground game falters, then Winston will have to make the dangerous throws downfield that could ultimately be the single determining factor between a win or loss for FSU.

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When the ‘Canes have the Ball:

Florida State’s run defense is clicking at the right time, as this unit will square off against Heisman candidate Duke Johnson Saturday night. Just this past weekend against the Cavaliers, FSU enjoyed one of the most impressive performances this season against the run as they held halfback Kevin Parks to just 43 yards on 15 carries. After the calculation of negative yards by quarterback Greyson Lambert FSU held UVA to 37 yards on 32 attempts.

It would be hard to fathom Florida State replicating these kind of numbers this weekend. However, if the ‘Noles can stiffen up and not miss a significant amount of tackles, they can sustain success against Johnson, who has gained at least 100 yards rushing in his last five game in the backfield.

Overshadowed by the success of the veteran running-back is true freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya. Kaaya has played just as well as any other quarterback in college football lately. Kaaya currently leads the ACC in touchdown passes with 20 and has played mistake free football in his past three games behind center, not throwing a single interception.

Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya’s career stats can be viewed below.

Florida State checks in just below the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game. As it stands right now the ‘Noles are vulnerable to an accurate quarterback. FSU is giving up 238.3 yards per game in the air and 11.98 yards per completion. Look for Kayaa to try to exploit this with a mindful eye on players like junior linebacker Terrance Smith, who the Seminoles should see back in action Saturday.

Final Thoughts

This matchup could have fireworks going off early and often for both teams as the Hurricanes and Seminoles both have more than just a couple of playmakers on offense. Miami should take FSU all the way into the fourth quarter. The most intriguing matchup to watch for should be how Florida State’s offense, especially the run game, matches up against the ‘Canes defense.

Florida State has everything to lose while Miami has everything to gain from this game. Based on the level of regard the playoff committee has for Florida State’s unbeaten season it would seem that a loss at Sun Life Stadium would practically eliminate the Florida State Seminoles from playoff contentions barring a “two-loss chaos” scenario.