Jameis Winston: Before & After the Sexual Assault Allegations Went Public

By now you’ve certainly heard about Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston and how he was recently cleared — again — at his Code of Conduct hearing held at FSU. My fellow ChopChat editor Patrik Nohe recently reviewed how biased much of the coverage of the proceedings has been, as the national narrative surrounding Winston has largely treated him as guilty until proven innocent.

And while Winston has weathered the storm in leading the Seminoles to a second-straight undefeated regular season and ACC title, it’s naive to think that the cloud hanging over his head hasn’t affected his play– and the numbers corroborate just such a notion.

The sexual assault allegations went public on Friday, November 8, 2013, the day after Oregon’s loss to Stanford put the ‘Noles firmly in control of their own destiny regarding the national championship they would eventually go on to claim. So for the first eight games of the 2013 campaign, Winston was able to be himself. He spoke lightly and openly with the media. Questions targeted on-the-field issues and not legal proceedings. In the 18 games he’s played since, there’s been the off-the-field storyline brought about by the allegations.

And of course now, the cloud of allegations has broken up. If you feel like you’ve heard a lot less about Winston since the decision came out that he was not responsible for violating FSU’s Code of Conduct, it’s because that’s not a negative story, and thus, in the eyes of the national media, not worth telling.

But the numbers tell their own story: namely, that the allegations going publicly had a distinct effect on Winston’s play– and that if he’s finally clear of these trappings — and he is, barring a civil suit — the Oregon Ducks had better be concerned.

In his eight games prior to 11-8-13, Winston threw 24 touchdown passes to just 6 interceptions. In his 18 games since, those numbers are 40 TD tosses to 21 picks. The averages: before allegations, Winston threw 3 TDs and .55 picks per game. After allegations? 2.2 scoring passes with 1.16 interceptions. Winston was more effective scoring with his legs before the allegations went public as well: he had three rushing scores in eight games, compared to just four running TDs in the 18 games since.

Prior to public allegations, Winston averaged 9.99 yards per play. After, that number is 7.76– a significant drop. One reason for this is that Winston was completing a better percentage of his passes before the circus began: 70.25%, to be exact, compared to 65.17 post media-blitz.

But the most jarring statistics involve Winston’s passer rating. After the allegations went public, Winston’s passer rating is 154.85. That’s certainly nothing to sneeze at: it would be 13th in the country this season. But in his eight games before the allegations went public, Winston was, simply put, staggering. His passer rating: 199.44.

If the eight games Winston played prior to the allegations going public were a complete season, Winston’s would be the greatest passer rating in any year for which the statistic exists, dating back to 1956

How good is that? If the eight games Winston played prior to the allegations going public were a complete season, Winston’s would be the greatest passer rating in any year for which the statistic exists, dating back to 1956. The only other player to even eclipse the 190 mark was Russell Wilson, whose 191.78 passer rating in 2011 is the best on record (Winston finished the 2013 season at 184.85).

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Florida State’s last two games suggest that the weight of these allegations — and their being addressed, at last — has factored largely in Winston’s play as well. In the Florida game, with his Code of Conduct looming, Winston posted the only double-digit passer rating of his career, an 87.92 that included a career-high four interceptions. After the hearing took place, and Winston could put the proceedings behind him, he seemed renewed in the ACC Championship Game, and his passer rating reflects this: his 189.52 mark was his best since the allegations were made public.

It’s a tantalizing prospect for FSU fans– and a daunting one for not just Oregon, but Alabama and Ohio State as well: a rebooted Jameis Winston, free and clear of off-the-field issues and able to concentrate solely on football.

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