After two disappointing seasons, the 2026 football season is near, leading to shaky nerves in Tallahassee and externally through the broader Seminole fanbase. A new quarterback, a new Offensive Coordinator, and Mike Norvell as a potential lame-duck head coach all add to the tension.
As spring wraps up, let's preview the season and make bold predictions. The best part about preseason is remaining positive and optimistic, so let's jump in.
Red zone offense efficiency should be much better
Gus Malzhan left a lot to be desired in this area last season. When he was hired, my thought was that this would be one of the best offenses in between the 20s in the sport. I was not that far off, but that means that redzone efficiency suffered.
According to NCAA Stats, Florida State finished 93rd, tied with Arkansas State. In 57 redzone attempts, Florida State mustered 37 touchdowns. In other words, 65 percent of FSU’s scores. For perspective, NC State (which led the ACC in Redzone percentage) scored 35 touchdowns on 44 attempts. Though they ended up with fewer attempts, a whopping 80 percent of their redzone opportunities resulted in hitting paydirt.
Enter Tim Harris, more than 20 years Malzahn’s junior, who brings some of Malzahn’s concepts to balance out Mike Norvell’s play calls. Two years ago at UCF, Harris produced a top 20 offense, and the offense finished 7th nationally in rushing per Tomahawk Nation. Add in the edition of Tre Wisner beside Ousmane Kromah, and the Seminole backfield is cooking with gas.
This should make life easier for standout newcomer Devin Carter and all-potential team Jayvan Boggs to get loose in the end zone, helping the offense be less reliant on Duce Robinson, giving defenses something to think about. Now, let's explore the other side of the ball.
Top-20 defense is possible with improvements from the linebackers
Lost in last season’s disappointment is that defensive coordinator Tony White was also in his first season at Florida State. He brought his 3-3-5 defensive scheme with him, noted for aggressiveness and disrupting rhythms through pressure and speed.
The Desir Twins have been noted as being vocal leaders throughout the spring. That is great news considering all the drama the offseason started with. Players like Rylan Kennedy and Chris Jones are living up to the hype so far, which bodes well for 2026.
Karson Hobbs has been a factor in the spring, and freshman Jordan Crutchfield screams playmaker, providing great secondary depth in the cornerback room.
Don't be surprised when Mike Norvell and Florida State beats Miami
Expect the unexpected in rivalry games. Mike Norvell’s team will be playing with house money down in Miami Gardens this season. Fresh off a national title game appearance and bringing in the $10 million man, Miami and analysts believe that they will not miss a beat.
By the time this game rolls around, Florida State will have played SMU, Alabama, and Louisville, the latter two on the road. Additionally, 2025 ACC runner-up Virginia comes knocking, so to say the Seminoles will be tested is an understatement of grand proportions.
In three career games versus Florida State, Mark Fletcher has been held to 3.7 yards per carry and one touchdown, per StatMuse. Gone are Rueben Bain, Akheem Messidor, Keionte Scott, and last year’s number one villain, CJ Daniels, just to name a few.
Miami always has talent, but they aren’t Ohio State when it comes to reloading. The goal is to get Mario Cristobal into a slugfest, tight game where the game will hinge on his decision-making within five minutes. This is where the aforementioned red zone efficiency becomes paramount.
Florida State wins eight games in 2026 to keep Mike Norvell around
Some may think a bold prediction would be predicting a 10-2 record. That tells me they have not seen the schedule. This is called bold predictions, not off-the-rocker predictions, especially considering the over/under for wins is 6.5.
In 2025, Florida State lost a road game in overtime and three one-score games. A bounce here and there (not like the NC State punt return), and Florida State is looking at least 7-5 this past season.
Clemson comes to Tallahassee this year, and Dabo Swinney still will not play the long game in the portal. Cade Klubnik, Antonio Williams, Avieon Terrell, and TJ Parker have all moved on. Virginia is starting over at quarterback, and the Seminoles do not have to go to Raleigh to play North Carolina State.
There is enough talent here to make games like Louisville and Pittsburgh manageable. The losses that I am predicting are Alabama, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and though it is at home, the Noles need to beat North Carolina State for me to believe it. I will not call 2026 a triumphant return, but a notice that the Seminoles are on their way back up.
For more Sports Analysis, Michael can be found on the Sports Reports as Ordered Podcast on YouTube/DSPs and at authory.com.
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