As the calendar leaves us 159 days away from Florida State’s season opener with New Mexico State, the tension is palpable around the program. Mike Norvell’s job is on the line, and one look at the schedule says that everything must go right for him to return in 2027.
Coming off a 2-win season in 2024, FanDuel gave Florida State an over/under of 7.5. Sadly, the Noles stayed at the bottom with a 5-7 mark. Due to a lack of eligible teams, Florida State had the chance at a Pity Bowl game but rightfully declined.
Can Florida State football find its level?
FSU is entering 2026 with a win total of 6.5 per FanDuel. Let’s try to put that in perspective. Cal, with a new head coach, is coming in at 6.5. Georgia Tech, losing its offensive coordinator and quarterback, has a win total of 6.5. Just like last season, the matchup with North Carolina State could end up being for a bowl berth, as their win total is, you guessed it, 6.5.
Florida State fans do not view these schools as their peers, but alas, here we are. As with any team, the quarterback position is critical, and all signs are pointing to Ashton Daniels taking command of the offense. Theoretically, he can fill the Jordan Travis role with his athleticism and skill set. Norvell is saying all the right things, but Seminole is ready to see the offense in action.
Defensively, there are a few new players and returnees who should make this season interesting. Nehemiah Chandler has the ability to become one of the best corners in the nation, and paired with Ja’Bril Rawls, the Noles may just have a no-fly zone. Ashlynd Barker should thrive in year two of Tony White’s 4-2-5.
Mikai Gbayor already has experience in White’s system from his original stop in Nebraska, and Chris Jones led the Sunbelt in tackles last season at Southern Miss, per ncaa.com. Add in Ryan Kennedy to the Edge, and the Noles may be cooking with gas.
The Schedule
I have pegged the Louisville game as the game that will define the season. So where do the wins and losses come from:
Wins: New Mexico State, Central Arkansas, Virginia, Clemson, Boston College, North Carolina State
Losses: at Bama, at Miami, Louisville
Toss-ups: SMU, Florida, at Pitt
Getting SMU early could be a blessing, but Kevin Jennings can prove to be a headache. Getting out of that game unscathed is crucial as Bama waits on deck. Alabama has gone nearly a year of being reminded that it lost to the “lowly” Seminoles.
They are breaking in a new quarterback, and Kaylen Dabeor has his own pressure cooker to overcome. Even with a win in Tuscaloosa, how bought in will fans be at that point in the season? Throughout the schedule (Virginia, Clemson, Florida, BC, etc.), there are new quarterbacks under center.
Pitt came to Tallahassee and stunned last season behind Mason Heintschel, who was a True Freshman. Having a rational fear of North Carolina State does not have to be explained to those in the know. They have won four straight over FSU and six of seven, dating back to 2017.
The Final Spear
Under Norvell, the Seminoles have had glimpses of greatness, but way too many rough patches. Nearly two years since the last road win, 7-17 overall the last two years, to include a 3-13 ACC mark. The portal additions have given reasons for optimism heading into 2026.
FSU will hit the over, but it will be a race to the finish. Then in 2027, we get to do it all over again. Prediction 7-5 overall, 5-3 overall, as Florida State is one of the five ACC teams playing an eight-game conference schedule this season.
For more Sports Analysis, Michael can be found on the Sports Reports as Ordered Podcast on YouTube/DSPs and at auhotry.com.