Could the conference schedule hurt Florida State’s playoff chances?
A few months ago, it was announced that the ACC would begin an imbalanced conference schedule in 2026. In layman’s terms, some teams will play an eight-game schedule while others will play nine. On one side, Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Florida State will play eight games. The ACC has a plan! Except that tiebreakers have not yet been determined. On3’s Brett McMurphy reports that the ACC is hoping to decide by spring. During the college football playoff race, we saw the media and conference battles between Notre Dame and Miami. Could Florida State find itself in the crosshairs this time around?
Potential Solutions
Before the scheduling format change, FSU was to host Notre Dame this season. That would have meant Notre Dame would be playing FSU, UNC, and BC as part of their annual 5-game agreement. The easy fix would have been to have the schools that play Notre Dame in a given year play the 8-game conference schedule and count the game against the Irish as a conference game for the full conference members. That would be the cleanest way to influence tiebreakers, but with FSU already having Alabama on its out-of-conference schedule, that would have made the schedule even more of a murderer’s row.
College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings would be tough to use because teams could finish 10-2 with an 8-1 conference record, and an 11-1 Florida State with a 7-1 ACC mark could pay the price. What weighs more, wins or losses? How much does context matter? With the pressure cooker Mike Norvell is facing, this decision could decide everything. So far in college football, we have seen that if something does not get the desired results, the system can be manipulated until it is “right.”
This decision could determine how Florida State’s relationship with the conference progresses or regresses in the upcoming seasons. There is always an old-fashioned weighted option. Combining conference win percentage against opponents' win percentage and the dreaded head-to-head. FSU plays Louisville, Miami, SMU, and Virginia, which is important dependent on the conference’s decision, since they are on the list of teams that play nine ACC games this season. That would be a good place for a record against common opponents' tiebreaker. In an outlier situation, where everything is equal, could we eventually talk about play-in scenarios? Just imagine, Clemson versus Miami, and Florida State versus Georgia Tech to reach Charlotte for the ACC title game. That would likely be a few years away from even being a thought, but nothing should be off the table.
Expansion
Could expansion be an option? There is not much at the table at this time. The other Power 4 conferences offer more stability than the ACC. I do not think Florida State fans would get excited for Memphis, USF, Tulane, or Connecticut, and I doubt the academic snobs of the conference would go for that either, but Notre Dame is going to continue to eat its cake. Notre Dame could solve this conundrum by joining the league in football, but what is their incentive to do so?
The Final Spear
2026 is setting up to be an interesting year for the Seminoles. Starting the year with their head coach on the hot seat, Labor Day against SMU, followed by Alabama. We will know in short order where Florida State should set its expectations for the rest of the season. The ACC is never without drama, and here we are again with FSU’s fate in the conference’s hands. Remember the Duke/Virginia championship game from this year, which left the ACC champion out of the playoffs? Hopefully, by the time the ACC reaches its decision, Florida State will have a starting quarterback announcement.
For more Sports Analysis, Michael can be found on the Sports Reports as Ordered Podcast on YouTube/DSPs and at authory.com