Florida State faces a pivotal challenge on its quest for bowl eligibility in a venue that has proven difficult for the program. North Carolina State has won the last three meetings, and FSU has dropped five of the last six games overall in the series. Since 2000, the Noles are just 4-7 in road games against the Wolfpack, underscoring the significance of this matchup. By the way, the Wolfpack is also 5-5 and looking to secure a bowl berth.
The Teams at a Glance
The Noles have the better athletes and are elite when they can run their tempo. Florida State will have to spread NC State’s defense horizontally and take advantage of yards after catch opportunities. The offensive line has looked better in recent weeks, but at times Tommy Castellanos can press, which leads to overthrows and heat checks as if he’s throwing alley oops to 6’6” Duce Robinson. CJ Bailey brings many of the same qualities as Tommy, especially the dual-threat capability, so NC State will not introduce foreign concepts to FSU.
The Venue
How tough is Carter-Finley really? Ask Georgia Tech. The Yellowjackets came in 3 weeks ago and left being upset after giving up 48 points to the Wolfpack. That loss could keep Georgia Tech out of the playoffs. Ask Virginia, who lost a 35-31 decision to NC State back in September, that counted as a non-conference game. That loss could keep Virginia out of the playoffs. NC State is the worst type of team because even with those feats and a road win over Wake Forest, they have lost five of seven. After the bye week, and feeling themselves, NC State went into Miami Gardens and lost 34 points. Hollywood Smothers (who I believe is the best overall back in the ACC) has been compromised from a health standpoint, and against Miami, he only rushed seven times for -2 yards.
FSU enters another high-pressure road game in a stadium that has repeatedly delivered losses. Earlier this season, they experienced a deflating defeat on the 30th anniversary of Virginia’s landmark win, which gave FSU its first-ever ACC loss, and the Noles remain winless on the road (0-3). Performance drops markedly away from home: FSU averages 43.3 points at home (inflated by lower-tier opponents) but only 20.3 points on the road. Meanwhile, NC State’s home scoring is 15.8 points higher than its road average, highlighting the uphill battle FSU faces.
Need for Concern?
Last week, Florida State showed encouraging signs, running for 237 yards against Virginia Tech. They also gave up 238 on the ground. Should this game come down to a kick, I would not be the most confident. Jake Weinberg is only 2-4 on kicks between 40-49 yards and has only 15 attempts in 10 games. The defense is talented, but there is a serious lack of execution and frequent confusion that is concerning for how late we are in the season. The linebackers can be held in coverage, and if NC State still had the services of KC Concepcion (Texas A&M), my concern level would be through the roof. Tackling will be key, especially as Smothers tries to find himself. FSU cannot let him get going. Slow starts have hampered the Noles (going back to that Virginia game). CJ Bailey on the year has completed 71% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and FSU would be wise to locate Noah Rogers on every snap. Unfortunately, Ja'Bril Rawlins has been lost for the season, so freshman Shamar Arnoux will have to be ready to play beyond his experience level.
The Final Spear
NC State gave up 214 yards rushing to Miami and gave up 19 more first downs. They only held the ball for 23:17, so they have to keep the offense on the field and play their own style of ball control. FSU could get buried if they have another slow start, as Gus Malzahn’s offense is a frontrunning system. They will not come back from more than 10 down. NC State's defense cannot hold up against the FSU run game. Their pass defense leaves even more to be desired, ranking dead last in the nation in passing yards per game. In those two big wins mentioned earlier, they still gave up 36 and 31 to Georgia Tech and Virginia, respectively. The Wolfpack rely too much on explosives so a conservative defensive game plan should suffice. The Noles just need to keep everything in front of them. As long as FSU cleans up the missed tackles, protects the ball and Castellanos plays within structure, the Noles should escape with a 27-23 win.
For more College Football Analysis Michael can be found on the Sports Reports as Ordered Podcast on YouTube, X, TikTok, and all DSPs.