Florida State basketball (11-12, 4-6 ACC) will host No. 15 Virginia (20-3, 9-2 ACC) on Tuesday night, looking for its fourth consecutive ACC win. The Cavaliers are only one game behind ACC leaders Duke and Clemson and have won nine of their last 10.
They’ll enter the game as -8.5 betting favorites with the over/under 151.5 points total, according to Fanduel.com. Those odds imply an 80-72 Virginia win.
FSU head coach Luke Loucks knows the Noles will need all the help they can get from the home crowd and will purchase alcoholic beverages for the first 500 fans at the game. They’ll also have discounted concessions.
Virginia is the type of team that could be a matchup nightmare. They shoot the ball well from three, rarely turn the ball over, make free throws, and over 30 percent of their rebounds are on the offensive glass.
Four Keys To FSU Pulling Off The Upset
- Don’t get into a three-point shooting contest
- Make free throws
- Avoid Turnovers
- Limit UVA's offensive rebounding
Florida State had a habit of shooting over 50 percent of its shots from beyond the arc earlier this year. That percentage has decreased over the last seven games. UVA is going to shoot a ton of threes because about 46 percent of their shots are from the three-point line. They make 35.7 percent of those shots. FSU must go into the game knowing they’ll make some threes, but shouldn’t feel the need to try to match them in that department. If so, and they shoot like they normally do, it’ll probably lead to blowout city.
FSU’s best chance is take the ball to the rim and get to the free throw line as often as they can. Virginia averages 5.6 blocks per game and will challenge when they go into the paint. If the Noles get to the charity stripe, they must make their season average (71.5 percent) or higher. If they went 20 of 28, that would be their season average.
FSU has done a great job of limiting turnovers for a team with a ton of offensive possessions. They only average 11.7 turnovers per game. They only had five in their win over Notre Dame, which was key in their three-point win.
UVA averages 41.5 rebounds per game, and they attack the offensive glass. FSU can’t allow UVA to crash the boards and kick out for three-pointers. They need UVA to have as many empty possessions as possible on the offensive end.
The rest are obvious points. They need to make some threes, not miss easy shots or layups. It’ll be interesting to see how the guys start the game. They should have some confidence after winning three straight ACC games. The game will start at 7 p.m. and will air on ESPNU.