FSU quarterback Thomas Castellanos is the straw that stirs the drink for the FSU offense. If he plays well, the probability of FSU winning the game skyrockets. If he plays poorly, they usually have no shot of winning.
That will be the case when the Noles travel to the Swamp to face the rival Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon. FSU hasn’t won on the road since it won in the Swamp in 2023. The FSU offense is usually most efficient and scores the most points when Castellanos has between 15 and 25 pass attempts.
The closer he creeps towards 30 or more pass attempts, the more bad things happen. Castellanos’s biggest mistakes usually happen when he fails to set his feet before making a throw. The pass usually winds up being inaccurate or floats on him, as it did on the first interception against NC State last week.
He usually has time to set his feet, but he trusts his arm too much, and that’s where the inaccuracies lie. The other part is his decision-making and doing unnecessary stuff like throwing sidearm when he doesn’t need to. Castellanos usually has to see guys open before he throws it, which means his passes are often late, giving defenders time to make up ground and defend the play. That was the case last week, early in the game against NC State.
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If Castellanos throws those passes earlier, they are probably touchdowns or huge gains. One of them still should have been caught, but the late pass made the catch more difficult for the receiver than it had to be.
Hopefully, Gus Malzahn realizes that Castellanos throwing the ball too much isn’t a good thing and doesn’t get away from the run game too early against the Gators. Castellanos attempted the following number of passes on the road this year(all losses): 32, 28, 43, and 32. He completed 52.4 percent of his passes in those games. Some of those were not helped by receivers dropping the ball, but the formula for FSU to win revolves around 25 or fewer pass attempts with Castellanos at QB. That’s something to watch for in the Florida game.