After the past few seasons, you would be hard-pressed to call any game Florida State takes the field for a guaranteed win. We are one month out, and fall camp is underway, so it is time to analyze the schedule. Depending on who you talk to, the number of wins they think will save Mike Norvell’s job may vary. As a hopeful fan like me, I think 8-4 is on the table with some breaks, but 6-6 is more likely. If you are not faint at heart, take a gander at FSU’s pre-Halloween schedule. Who the Noles beat/lose to may be more important than the overall record itself, but let’s examine each opponent from easiest to hardest.
The Easy Ones
Central Arkansas
In a perfect world, an FCS opponent coming to your place should be a confidence builder. Playing a FCS team coming off a 3-9 campaign is a best-case scenario for a team looking to build itself up.
This game should allow freshmen and new players to get playing time and adjust to their new team. Central Arkansas, in its losses last year, lost by an average of 20.7 points per game. This includes a 61-6 loss in the season opener at Missouri. They do return 11 starters and 53 players total, but they will be overmatched.
Will the Noles be 1-2 heading into that game off a physical loss to Bama? If so, they will not be able to overlook this team. Especially with a revenge matchup with UVA the following week.
New Mexico State
What is better than getting a crack at SMU early in the season when the Mustangs are replacing a lot? Getting them after a tuneup.
New Mexico State fits the description of a sacrificial lamb and should allow the offensive line and Ashton Daniels to keep it vanilla enough and build chemistry that will help in the weeks to come. Since Diego Pavia and Devon Dampier are not walking through that door, the Noles will walk through the Aggies.
At Boston College
At first glance, this game should probably be ranked higher, since the Noles have a near 2-year road losing streak. In addition to Mike Norvell, Bill O’Brien is another coach who may be fighting for his job. The ACC preseason poll has BC ranked only ahead of Stanford, which tells you all you need to know.
Chestnut Hill in November can be a task, but it is usually overstated. The last trip to Chestnut Hill in 2023 was a nail-biter, and BC recorded 18 penalties for 131 yards. At least FSU avoids the dreaded “Bandana Game.” This does have trap game written all over it following Clemson and before going to Pitt. Fortunately, for the good guys, BC is not a good team by any measure.
The Toss Ups
Virginia
I still cannot shake the image of Squirrel White on the ground as the Wahoo fans storm the field. Last year’s OT thriller in Charlottesville was the 30th anniversary of FSU’s first ACC loss, and UVA had the buzz and played into that narrative. After falling behind 14-0, the Noles stormed back.
UVA compiled an 11-23 record before last season’s improbable run to the ACC championship game under head coach Tony Elliot. I will not call last season a fluke; I will call it a perfect storm, and if FSU loses this game, it could be the last we see of Mr. Norvell.
NC State
Every Seminole fan should know: do not count the Wolfpack as a gimme. Going back to the days of Tory Holt, NC State has, for lack of a better word, owned FSU. Last year was especially frustrating with the longest muffed punt in recorded history (it has to be right)? A paltry 11 points kept FSU from clinching a bowl game.
NC State has the Virginia schedule of this year (easy) and should be in ACC title contention regardless of the quality of the team. That is a dangerous formula; FSU could be yet another cupcake.
The Must-Haves
Clemson
Another team that is on the brink of desperation. Head Coach Dabo Swinney is making headlines again with microphones in his face. Last season was unusual for the Tigers as they did not meet the lofty expectations of being ranked 4th in the Preseason AP Top 25. It all fell apart, and while you cannot expect Clemson to be down for long, they’ve lost the likes of TJ Parker, Avieon Terrell, Antonio Williams, Cade Klubnik, etc and Dabo’s refusal to get into the portal could come back to bite them. Is it enough to give FSU an advantage? To be determined.
At Pitt
If you squint just enough, you can see Mason Heintschel completing another pass against the Noles' limited pass rush. After coming into Doak and throwing for 321 yards and 2 touchdowns, Pitt is on the radar.
Florida
The Gators have made an upgrade at the head coaching position. Jon Sumrall is in, and he brings Georgia Tech’s offensive coordinator, Buster Faulkner, and the Wreck’s presumptive starter, Aaron Philo, with him to Gainesville. Jaden Baugh is back as well, and the Gators have talent all over their roster.
Florida has playoff hype, but that’s a lot of faith in a team that is starting for what seems to be the 10th time in recent years. The game is at Doak, so there’s that, but what state will the Noles be in by season’s end? Florida has their own gauntlet to run through, as any SEC fan will tell you. Could a bowl be on the line?
The Tone-Setter
SMU comes with its own challenges. Kevin Jennings is back with new pieces around him. Rhett Lashlee has established himself as one of the best coaches in the conference. SMU sports a 14-2 ACC record and won at Death Valley and beat Miami last season. The Mustangs also have two of the better linebackers in the conference and a veteran offensive line. This should be a Duce Robinson game and a chance to wake Doak up early. I think the Noles win, but they will have to earn it.
The Prayers
At Alabama
Did anyone say revenge? While Bama did make the College Football Playoff last season, walking out of Tallahassee as losers removes any chance Bama does not have this game circled. The name Florida State should be enough in most years, but Bama is breaking in a new quarterback and O-line/Running Backs.
Since 2020, Bryant-Denny has been unkind to visitors as Bama boasts a 38-2 record, (cfbstats.com), with the only losses coming to Texas and Oklahoma. Bama’s defense will swarm, and while Ashton Daniels may make better decisions than Tommy Castellanos, it could be a long night.
At Miami
It is easy to take solace and pride in the fact that FSU (21-20) has a winning record in road games at Miami.
Depending on how quickly the offensive line gels, it could be a relief to look across and not find Reuben Bain or Ahkeem Mesidor. Miami may have the best backfield in the country and the Heisman frontrunner at quarterback. Hard Rock will be at a fever pitch, and has Ashton Daniels shown an ability to handle such diversity? Do not give up the big play, and the Noles have a better-than-expected chance, but can anyone be confident outside of “anything can happen in a rivalry game?”
At Louisville
Weeknight, check. Short week, check. At Louisville, check. Memories of 2002, definitely. The coaching matchup may be more critical than any matchup found on the field. Playing Louisville early would have been a plus with Lincoln Kienholz taking over, but by this point the Cardinals will be rocking and rolling. Add in that this is the game before the trip to Miami, and it could spell disaster. This is the loss I see happening more than any.
The Final Spear
The road to a bowl game will be a path of scars. A bowl game for most teams with this schedule would be a success, but this is Florida State, and Nole Nation demands better. Mike Norvell could be gone as soon as the Virginia game ends if things do not improve. At this point, fans are just here for the ride. One month to go!
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