It is that time of year again, when everyone puts on their prognosticator hat(s) and creates power rankings and makes predictions. CBS Sports has released its ACC power ranking, which lists Florida State at 12. How crazy does that sound? I know, I know, Mike Norvell. If Florida State fans can step back for a second and appreciate the new talent we have seen this spring, we ought to be offended. Is Florida State due for a bounce back? What would that even look like? Missing out on a bowl game last year was not only humbling but a punch to the liver. There are tiers in the ACC, but what are reasonable expectations this season?
Tier 1 - Miami, SMU, Louisville
Miami, fresh off its National Title game appearance, signed the $10 Million-Dollar-Man: Darian Mensah. Mensah has quite the arsenal at his disposal. Whether it is Malachi Toney or Mark Fletcher, the Canes offense is in good hands. While Mario Cristobal has done an excellent job on the recruiting trail, the losses of Reuben Bain, Keionte Scott, and Ahkeem Mesidor suggest that the Miami defense will take at least an incremental step back.
Louisville is the team I fear here. That is more coach-based than anything. The timing of the matchup (back-to-back with Miami) for the Friday Night game. I still cannot shake the Thursday Night Road game in the rain at UL from 2002, and who could forget Lamar Jackson announcing himself in a 63-20 victory. Of course, there was also 2014, when Jameis Winston had to lead a 21-point comeback in the then-named Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium.
The point, freaky things happen to the Noles in the city of Louisville. UL is breaking in a new quarterback that people should know, even if only by name. Lincoln Kienholz of Ohio State fame. Â Additionally, former Nole Lawayne McCoy will be looking to meet his potential. Outside of a neutral site game with Ole Miss to open the year and a home date in September with SMU, FSU will get the very best version of Louisville.
SMU provides the first test of the season after the New Mexico State cupcake to get the year started. Kevin Jennings is back, but SMU lost just about everything else from the skill positions. The Mustangs' defense was up and down, but hey, they did beat Miami, Clemson, and Louisville. Losing as much as they did and getting them so early in the year should give the Noles a leg up.
Tier 2 - Clemson, Â Virginia Tech, Pitt
Of course, Virginia Tech stands out when looking at the past few seasons. Enter James Franklin. We all know the record vs Top 10 teams by now, but Miami is the only team that meets that criteria at this point. He has received grief for losing to a team that is 117-21 since 2015. The Hokies should hit the ground running with out-of-conference games vs VMI, Old Dominion (not James Madison), and a road trip to Maryland.
He brought Ethan Grunkmeyer and Luke Reynolds with him, complementing Marcellous Hawkins, who rushed for 749 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Virginia Tech also returns 14 starters, 8 on offense, which is second in the nation, so at the very least, from a personnel standpoint, they have more continuity than the Noles.
After a tumultuous season in Clemson, South Carolina, last year, Dabo Swinney has a new signal-caller at the helm. Chris Vizzina, who has been in Clemson as Cade Klubnik’s backup, is expected to assume the mantle. Clemson does sport the best receiver combo in the conference in TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr., in my opinion, so the matchup between the secondary and receivers on Halloween will go a long way into showing what FSU is capable of this season. Clemson lost seven defensive starters to the NFL draft, so the question is. If not now, when? Go Noles. While the Tigers have not suffered a FSU-esque letdown, they are only 15-9 in the ACC since 2023.
Mason Heintschel played beyond his youth last season, which included a near-flawless game in Tallahassee. Pitt ranked 20th in scoring and had a chance at the ACC title game late in the season. However, Pat Narduzzi's Panthers lost to Notre Dame and Miami by a combined 75-22, or otherwise they would have been in the College Football Playoff conversation. Gone is Kyle Louis, but back is Braylan Lovelace to wreak havoc from the linebacking corps. FSU takes a trip up north on November 13th. Let's pray for sunny skies.
Tier 3 - Florida State, NC State, Wake, Duke, UVA
With 21 seniors, is this Wake Forest’s ramp-up year? Under Dave Clawson, Wake Forest's formula was to take a beating for a few years and then be ready to take on the world with a crop of older players. Jake Dickert expedited that process last year, though, leading the Demon Deacons to 9-4. Their defense was the pillar of the team last year, but they are replacing both starting corners. Gio Lopez is in to run the ship at QB from UNC.  Their schedule will keep them at bay as one less team FSU should fear looking up to in the standings.
Was UVA a fluke last season? They are changing quarterbacks again, and prior to last year, head coach Tony Elliot’s record was a measly 11-23. Then, he set a program record with 11 wins. The Cavaliers bring back most of their O-line, and the middle of their defense should be a strength, but the Noles have revenge on their mind, and images of Squirrel White somehow surviving a stampede on yet another Friday Night mishap. Beau Pribula is in from Mizzou to take over, which could play to FSU’s favor as he is a turnover waiting to happen against good competition. The memo is to make him beat you with his arm. He will have to show that he can.
All I need to say is NC State. I think that gets the point across. At least the game is in Tallahassee, not that that truly matters. Duke, on the other hand, won the ACC championship last season, albeit with five losses. They do not show up on the schedule this season, but they will have a lot to do with who makes the title game. Manny Diaz has brought a culture of overcoming adversity to the program. The Blue Devils will need to improve on defense (which is something I never thought I’d say about a Manny Diaz-led team). They were 14th and 15th in the ACC in scoring defense and total defense, respectively, per acc.com. This year, they do not have the benefit of Darian Mensah to bail them out, or those refs from their Clemson game last season, presumably.
Tier 4 - Cal, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Georgia Tech is starting from scratch offensively as former offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner now roams the sidelines in Gainesville. Aaron Philo was the projected starter at quarterback, but he followed Faulkner to the SEC. A lot of what the Yellow Jackets accomplished last year was on the back of (ironically) their Tebow impersonator, Haynes King, who is off to the NFL. Their head coach, Brent Key, has a Dan Campbell-esque ability to motivate his team and make the impossible feel achievable. That goes a long way in maintaining what he has created in Atlanta.
Cal is ushering in a new era with former player Tosh Lupoi as head coach. Cal has upgraded their offense with Chase Hendricks, an All-MAC wide receiver, and Ian Strong, a receiver from Rutgers. Last season, the Golden Bears won at Louisville and beat SMU, but were also blanked by San Diego State and were one of Bill Belichick’s few wins. Cal could be a sleeper if they can hold up on both lines, but for now, FSU fans remember their only ACC win from 2024 well.
Syracuse started 3-1 last season before quarterback Steve Angeli tore his Achilles. He went down in a win at Clemson. Â Coach Fran Brown is the type that players would run through a wall for. The Orange are not on the schedule, but Syracuse is a team FSU should feel confident that it is better than. Fun fact, if Angeli cannot stay upright this season, Cuse may have to lean on former top recruit Malachi Nelson.
Tier 5 - The rest
The Final Spear
Florida State does not need to aim to be the teams I listed in Tier 1, but that group can serve as a reference point for the final destination. Until the games start, perception is reality. Florida State fans are in a state of despair and panic, but all things considered, the Noles could be Stanford or Boston College. Anything less than 8 wins is a disappointment. Anything less than a 7th-place finish is a disaster, and I am sure there will be fans willing to make the trek to help Coach Norvell pack his bags. If nothing else, the offense is in his hands, and after last season, the offense can only get better. I think…
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