Earlier this week, I asked if there was value in betting on the Florida State Seminoles in their matchup against Alabama earlier this week. The spread was +13.5, the moneyline was -550, and the over/under was 50.5, according to .
I figured most bettors would take Alabama in the matchup, and the spread might creep up to +14 or +14.5, but that hasn’t happened. The spread remains +13.5, but the moneyline has been hammered and is now -610. I wrote I’d take the under if I had to bet on it, and the over/under is now 48.5.
Here’s the amazing thing: 86 percent of the money is on Alabama to cover the spread, and 79 percent of the bets are on Alabama to cover the spread, yet the spread hasn’t changed for weeks.
The moneyline has changed, which means casual bettors are probably using Alabama in parlays to attempt to win money. However, parlays are never a wise bet. It’s also never a good sign for a side to receive this much action and the line not move at all.
That’s a solid sign that oddsmakers believe FSU will play Alabama closer than most expect and potentially cover the spread, especially with Alabama down two starters and a third who will likely be limited because he just passed the concussion protocol after missing most of fall camp.
Could FSU pull off the massive upset? We've seen Mike Norvell shine in season openers before against Notre Dame and LSU. However, FSU wasnt' this big of an underdog in any of those games. There are many unknown factors going into this game, but it's one of the more intriguing games on the docke to kick off the 2025 season. If you're betting, make sure you do so responsibly!