FSU football: Why Florida State will outlast Miami on Saturday

No. 18 Florida State (3-1, 0-1 ACC) hosts archrival No. 3 Miami (4-0, 0-0 ACC) in Tallahassee, FL, this Saturday at 7:30 EST on ABC. The Seminoles are coming off a tough opening conference loss to Virginia, whereas Miami is coming off its first bye week of the season.

The two in-state programs are looking to record their first conference win of the young season, and this marks the first time the two have met in the Top 25 since 2016. If that didn't make things interesting enough, Florida State's season is on the line, as they can't afford a 0-2 start in conference play to have a shot at potential ACC and College Football Playoff bids.

Amid desperation for the Seminoles, the rivalry looks even more intensified.

Miami currently has the 9th-best scoring defense in the nation, allowing 11.5 points per game. 21% of the run plays against the Hurricanes have gone for no gain or a loss. On the contrary, Florida State remains the nation's top scoring offense heading into week six and will look to establish the run early on. The Seminoles are averaging 336 rushing yards per game this season.

One of these two things has to give on Saturday.

Headlined by star defensive linemen Rueben Bain Jr., Miami's defensive front will present a significant challenge. Florida State offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will have to get creative to open up running lanes, or the Seminoles will struggle to move the ball consistently.

After allowing 46 points and over 400 total yards to Virginia, the Florida State defense must be better on Saturday. You can expect defensive coordinator Tony White to come out in his typical 3-3-5 scheme. However, don't be shocked if you see some 4-2-5 implementations.

If Miami begins to run the ball effectively, White could shift to a traditional four down front to pressure quarterback Carson Beck to pass the ball. The Seminoles will need to force Miami into mistakes and apply pressure to the quarterback, a phase that was lacking all too much last week.

Miami's offensive line ranks 29th in sack allowed this season and will pose yet another test to Florida State's front. Tony White will need his best blitz packages dialed up in this one.

Prediction

With ACC title hopes on the line, Florida State will come out desperate in this game. This will mark the Hurricanes' first true road test of the season, and a prime opportunity for Florida State to force them into mistakes. This will be the best offense Miami has seen all season, and I expect Gus Malzahn at max creativity.

He will certainly challenge Miami more than Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Denbrock did in Week 1. Unlike Denbrock, Malzahn shouldn't have to guide veteran quarterback Tommy Castellanos through this game, and that should allow him to distribute the ball effectively to his playmakers.

I got the Seminoles in this one, by a score of 30-26.