We just saw this scenario last week. A one-loss team at home as a +6.5 betting underdog against a top-10 opponent playing its first road game. The underdog won outright. That was the FSU vs. UVA game on Friday night.
Now, Virginia needed several things to go their way, and FSU shot itself in the foot a few times, but they played well enough to win in double overtime.
Miami is in the same position as FSU was last week. The only difference is that they are coming into the game off a bye week, which has its positives and negatives.
Related Story: FSU Still Has a Good Team Despite The Loss Against UVA
Over 90 percent of the bets were on FSU to cover the -6.5 betting spread. It was that way the entire week, and the betting line never changed, which is a big red flag for the betting favorite.
According to FanDuel, 82 percent of the money bet is on Miami to cover the spread, but 66% of the overall bets are on Miami to cover the spread.
If it’s too good to be true, it usually is, and most folks probably think Miami will roll FSU based on them losing to UVA. However, Miami doesn’t have the same caliber of offense as UVA, and the FSU defense matches up a little better against Miami’s offense than UVA because Carson Beck is basically a statue in the pocket, unlike UVA’s Chandler Morris(who scored three rushing touchdowns against FSU).
This game will come down to how well FSU’s offense performs against Miami’s defense. Miami hasn’t faced a good offense yet (Notre Dame was still trying to figure things out in the first game), and FSU had time to prep for this game after the Alabama game.
Don’t be shocked if it’s close or FSU wins outright. It’s all about the matchups, and many folks who think Miami is a lock could lose their money, much like everyone who bet on FSU last week did.