The game of the season is almost here, Florida v. Florida State, but for some reason this matchup seems more like déjà vu. In 2021, the Noles sat at 5-6 approaching their game against the Gators, facing an interim coach with a bowl game on the line. We have come full circle, Noles fans. Four years later and we are in the same spot. Does this feel like progress under Norvell? That’s for you to decide, I guess.
As Corey Clark would say “No playoff, no conference chase.” With no major post season stakes, this rivalry becomes a sort of cultural championship for fans, and I am confident Florida State will come out on top.
The Good Guys
The Noles have truly been demonstrating an explosive offense, averaging nearly 40 points, and putting up close to 500 yards of total offense per game. This is largely due to Duce Robinson and his ability to stretch the field and force defenses to account for him every play, creating opportunities for both the passing and running games. This was on full display during the Kent State game, where the Noles racked up 775 total yards and against East Texas A&M, with 729 yards. While this was very impressive, we can’t seem to replicate this against higher ranked opponents, which I believe is largely due to Tommy Castellano’s height. It has been extremely challenging for a 5’10 quarterback to throw across the middle of the field. This has severely limited Squirrel White’s pass completions on the season. A 4-star recruit from Tennessee should and would have more involvement if our offensive style and quarterback play wasn’t set up the way it is under Gus Malzahn. It doesn’t mean it’s right or wrong; Gus just has his own way of moving the ball, and it’s worked in many ways this year and over the course of his decades of coaching tenure.
In addition to consistently moving the ball, the Noles are making big momentum changing plays. A prime example of this came during the Alabama game when Tommy Castellanos hit Squirrel White for a huge 40-yard completion on 3rd and 11, setting up a 9-yard touchdown by Castellanos. In the same game, Florida State converted a crucial 4th and 1 to keep the drive alive, ultimately securing the win. Although we saw the opposite this past weekend, the team is still averaging 20.8 yards per completion and ranks near the top nationally in plays of 30+ and 40+ yards.
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The real question we should be asking though, is why a team averaging 40 points per game is still taking so many losses. Most fingers point to the defense. The Noles have struggled with allowing third-down conversions and extending drives for opposing teams. Additionally, the percentage of opponents’ drives that end in a loss of possession has dropped significantly during losing stretches, really emphasizing the inconsistency in getting the defense off the field.
The Bad Guys
Now let’s look at Florida. Their offense is pretty balanced, averaging 341 yards per game, with 217 passing yards and 124 rushing yards. Despite this, the Gators struggle to sustain drives, averaging around 20 points per game. When it comes to defense, their run game has been solid, but they are way more vulnerable with the ball in the air. Florida has proven to be successful in high-stakes moments, but their third-down conversion rate is very inconsistent. Unlike Florida State, the Gators’ defense shows a lot of discipline and strength, but overall offensive inconsistencies make it difficult for them to pull out wins.
At the end of the day, Norvell’s future at Florida State has already been determined, so this game’s outcome will truly mean the most for the fan base when all is said and done.