Florida State and Clemson, traditionally ACC football leaders, meet for the 38th time this weekend. While past matchups often determined conference titles, this year’s game focuses on securing bowl eligibility and restoring team confidence. Florida State ended a four-game losing streak to Wake Forest last week, emphasizing a strong running game and controlling the tempo. Tommy Castellanos performed well, averaging nearly 17 yards per completion. Clemson, facing its first potential losing season since 2010, is still recovering from a significant defensive lapse against Duke. The key question is which team can address its weaknesses and secure a pivotal win.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Florida State’s primary strength is its explosive offense, with recent scoring totals of 77, 66, and 38 points, resulting in a national ranking of seventh in scoring. They also have two games where they scored 31, leading them to the 7th highest scoring offense in the nation. Some of that is inflated if you look at the opponents, but speed is the name of the game. While these results reflect the quality of their opponents, Florida State’s speed and misdirection, characteristic of Gus Malzahn’s system, challenge opposing defenses. Against a Clemson defense that has shown vulnerability, the outcome may depend on whether Florida State’s offensive line can provide Castellanos with enough protection to capitalize on opportunities. Counter concepts and keeping defenses on their toes, his system is a thing of beauty when it’s clicking. Normally, facing T.J. Parker and Peter Woods would be terrifying, but after last week, the Noles have to be excited to see Clemson’s defense.
Phil Mafah’s departure left a huge hole in Clemson’s running game. The Tigers are 96th in rushing yards per game. Their leading rusher is Adam Randall, a converted wide receiver, the second leading rusher… Quarterback Cade Klubnik. Last week was Clemson’s first offense showing up against a worthy opponent, if you will. Cade, who came into the season as a Heisman candidate, only has 13 passing touchdowns across the Tigers’ eight games, but has gotten progressively better over the course of the season. Can FSU win a shootout? Antonio Williams and TJ Moore combined for 234 yards last week, but had a 10-2 reception disparity, respectively. Unfortunately, the most dangerous (in my opinion), Bryant Wesco, is out for the season with a back injury, but Clemson still has talent!
THE FINAL SPEAR
Tommy Castellanos cannot beat Clemson by himself. In the Miami game, the pressure got home frequently, which caused him to make throws that someone of his experience should not and cannot make. Was the Wake Forest game a mirage? The Noles have momentum and rhythm, and it seems Clemson is just tired of hearing Dabo talking. Each team will take advantage of the other’s weakness. FSU should be able to control the clock, while Clemson’s receivers should have space to operate. The key will be how efficient Clemson can be. I think of last year’s Vanderbilt/Alabama game, where Vandy controlled the ball for over 40 minutes but only won by five. Clemson has given up 80 points in their last two games. Clemson has one home win this season, which is against Troy way back on September 6. I will trust the more consistent offense and the coach who is not screaming for the school to fire him. Truthfully, flipping a coin may be more effective, but I will take the Noles 38-34.
For more College Football Analysis Michael can be found on the Sports Reports as Ordered Podcast on YouTube, X, TikTok, and all DSPs.