Let's face it, Florida State football has had six losing seasons in eight years. The truth is that the Seminoles have underperformed and have to get back on the right track. The negativity is through the roof, and they are trying to find answers.
Head coach Mike Norvell is firmly on many individuals' hot seat boards, which is something that fans never expected after his 2022 and 2023 campaigns in Tallahassee. There was a thought that the sustainable success would come to fruition.
Florida State comes into the 2026 season with some fans not caring about the program until Mike Norvell is relieved of his duties. The current over/under win total is sitting at 6.5, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
If the Seminoles somehow finish 7-5 in the regular season, you could say that they had a 5-5 record against Power Four competition since they play New Mexico State and Central Arkansas. That likely won't have the fan base jumping up and down for joy.
We are at the point in the offseason where fans start predicting wins and losses on the schedule to develop their projected records. To be honest, the Seminoles have better or equal talent than everyone on their slate except for Alabama and Miami.
That doesn't necessarily translate to wins, but the morale of the story is that the Seminoles have a better roster than last year on paper. Obviously, they have to translate that to wins on the field. However, Florida State has arguably better running backs, wide receivers, linebackers, and defensive backs this season than it did in 2025.
Florida State football should have a ceiling of ten wins in 2026
The floor of the season is low because 2-10 could still be a similar possibility, plus this squad hasn't proved to win a road game since November 2023. However, the ceiling could potentially be 10-2. I don't believe that they have the "horses" to beat the likes of Alabama in a revenge game on the road, and Miami on the road will be tough since they have an off week prior, and Florida State will have to travel to Louisville the week before.
A 10-2 ceiling is very bullish since the Seminoles haven't won but seven games in two years, but if there was any time for Florida State to turn it around, it is now. Florida State has a higher probability of winning six games than they are winning ten games in 2026, but that is why they call it a "ceiling".
This isn't an example of me drinking the Kool-Aid, but playing SMU at home on Labor Day Night has to give Florida State an advantage, even if the Mustangs are favored. Louisville has to play Ole Miss, NC State, and SMU before playing the Seminoles on Friday night. Clemson's Dabo Swinney is starting to decline with his program, while Florida has their first-year head coach in Jon Sumrall.
To be honest, head coach Mike Norvell feels the pressure. He has his fate in his hands with the playcalling responsibilities. Florida State's three-game stretch of Louisville, Miami, and Clemson will determine how the Seminoles' 2026 season will go.
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