WHAT’S ON THE LINE
Florida State has won six out of the last ten games against the Gators and split the most recent four matchups in the Swamp. This rivalry contest presents Mike Norvell with a crucial opportunity: a victory over Florida could ease division in the fanbase after news of his return. It would also make the Seminoles bowl-eligible, securing extra practices for returning players, and come with the added satisfaction of beating their rival. For Florida, although out of bowl contention, denying FSU postseason play would provide some consolation. Notably, the Seminoles’ last road win came at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on November 25, 2023.
The Gators want to finish strong after last week’s home loss to Tennessee—their first since 2003. Quarterback DJ Lagway, once mentioned as a Heisman hopeful, currently holds a 58.7 QBR with a 1:1 ratio of 13 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. With Billy Napier fired, the team has struggled, yet FSU should not underestimate them. Will the Seminoles rally now that Norvell’s status is clear? Recent history shows surprises, like Wisconsin's upset over Washington after confirming Luke Fickell's return. Fans are simply hoping for a win over what appears to be a disengaged Florida team. For players, this matchup could also serve as an audition for the transfer portal.
WHAT HAPPENS?
As usual, Duce Robinson provides a matchup nightmare. Sometimes the nightmare for the Seminoles is getting him the ball. Florida will aim to beat up FSU on the lines and establish the run to keep the defense honest. FSU is allergic to road trips. They mustered a mere 13 points at Stanford, 11 at NC State, and 10 at Clemson. FSU is currently 8th in the nation, converting 49% of offensive third-down opportunities. They should be able to use Florida’s aggressiveness against them in a judo-style way. That should open up Duce over the top, Danzy in the middle, and give Tommy Castellanos opportunities to operate. I just do not trust him to take advantage of it. Conversely, Jordan Baugh will be effective enough to allow Lagway to make throws that have not been available the last few weeks.
With players like Lagway, their struggles remind me of a star basketball player in a shooting slump. Get him some layups and free throws, just so they can see the ball go through the hoop. The Seminoles' secondary, at times, is a wide hoop. Points will be at a premium, and mistakes will be tantamount, so this game is a toss-up on its face. It is hard to trust FSU after all the slow starts. The Swamp will be rocking! We also know what happens when a Gus Malzahn offense has to make up a deficit. The Noles need to strike early and often remind the Gators of where they stand this season. The quarterback who makes the best decisions will go a long way in deciding this one. I do think the Gators will dictate the tempo; to win, they have to take advantage of redzone opportunities. Michai Boreau and Myles Graham, two senior impact players for the Gators at home for one last time, could cause problems for an inconsistent FSU offensive line.
THE FINAL SPEAR
THE FINAL SPEAR
I expect chaos, emotion, and Florida’s best punch. While the Seminoles seemingly have a leg up, where are their minds? I do not want to be cliché or cowardly, but no outcome in either direction would floor me at this point. Oh, what I would do for another Chris Rix to PK moment from 2003 in the Swamp. Against my better judgment, in a game that would make the Tennessee Titans blush, I will take Florida State 19-17. With disrespect intended to Florida, this feels like the Stanford game all over again. A should win, which may lead to a resuscitation afterwards.
For more College Football Analysis Michael can be found on the Sports Reports as Ordered Podcast on YouTube, X, TikTok, and all DSPs.