ESPN analyst has an idea of the number of wins Mike Norvell needs to have in 2026

This would be an ideal win total for Mike Norvell in 2026.
Nov 29, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell gestures against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Nov 29, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell gestures against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Florida State football was not impressive during the 2024 and 2025 seasons, where they totaled a whopping seven wins in two years. This is not the expectation of a program that was built by the legendary Bobby Bowden.

The lone moment of excitement in 2025 came from the opener, where Florida State defeated Alabama by a score of 31-17. The joyous energy didn't last long, as the Seminoles stumbled the rest of the year to lose seven of their last nine matchups.

Even with the failures, the administration decided to retain head coach Mike Norvell. This left the fan base quite frustrated, since Coach Norvell has led the Seminoles to four losing seasons in six years. Florida State's likely reasoning for keeping him likely stemmed from the large buyout he has, or from their belief in him as a coach (the more positive outlook).

ESPN analyst Adam Rittenberg lists Mike Norvell as someone that is on the hot seat

Many individuals outside the Florida State circle don't have much faith in what Mike Norvell has to offer in 2026. This is to be expected since there have always been doubters in the portal, especially ESPN who favors the SEC with their network partnering with them.

ESPN's Adam Rittenberg writes a piece titled "Way-too-early college football coaching hot seat tiers" (click here for the full article). Rittenberg lists head football coaches who are on the hot seat, and, of course, the first one mentioned is Mike Norvell.

Norvell fizzled down the stretch of the 2025 season and will have to rely on several newcomers to rejuvenate the energy in the program. It won't be any easier for Florida State, as they have to play SMU, Alabama, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, North Carolina State, Florida, and others in 2026.

Rittenberg lays the blueprint for Norvell to remain the coach in 2027 with Florida State, and that is to win at least eight games. I would suggest that the Seminoles need to start quickly, but we saw how that played out in 2025 with beating Alabama.

There is a pivotal three-game stretch where the Seminoles play Louisville on the road, Miami on the road, and Clemson at home. Florida State needs to find a way to win at least two of the three to likely be successful in accomplishing eight wins or more in 2026. The problem is that the Seminoles haven't won a road game since the 2023 meeting versus Florida.

Either way, 2026 will be the year for Mike Norvell to succeed or be relieved of his duties.

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