Florida State football is in a weird spot, being inconsistent with being 2-10 in 2024 and 5-7 in 2025. Head coach Mike Norvell is sitting in hot water, where he is on most people's hot seat lists. This is understandable since the program has four losing seasons in six years.
The administration decided to keep Coach Norvell around for the 2026 season. This made fans question whether the program had enough money and was serious enough about winning football games.
With that said, this isn't saying that I have personally given up on Mike Norvell as the leader of this football team, but the concerns are out there.
Andrea Adelson believes that the Miami game is the most defining contest in 2026 for Florida State
The hot-seat talk puts Florida State in a win-now mode because individuals want to see results. The 2026 season has many different obstacles that the program will have to face, such as playing SMU on Labor Day night, having to worry about Alabama with getting revenge from last year, and so much more.
What's important to understand is that this is Florida State, a program that was built under legendary Bobby Bowden, not being afraid of adversity. The Seminoles could take a note or two from Coach Bowden in playing opposing teams anytime and anywhere.
ESPN's Andrea Adelson wrote a piece highlighting defining games in 2026 for every Power Four team (full article is here). Spoiler alert: Her selection for Florida State included the arch-rival Miami Hurricanes, which the Seminoles play on the road on October 17th.
While many fans use the Hurricanes as a barometer of success with them reaching the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, it wouldn't have been my choice. It should be noted that Mike Norvell has a 3-2 record against Mario Cristobal and has proven that he can win against him.
I would go in a different direction and say that the road matchup against Louisville the week prior is more defining. As we all know, the Seminoles have struggled to win on the road. The last victory away from Doak Campbell Stadium for Florida State happened in 2023 when they defeated Florida.
That is hard to believe, but the contest against the Cardinals begins a three-game stretch of playing them, Miami, and Clemson back-to-back-to-back. The Seminoles probably need to win at least two of the three to ensure that Mike Norvell stays out of the hot seat.
Getting that first road ACC game could be vital to the team's success and a confidence builder for the second half of the 2026 season.