FSU football: Will Noles have over/under nine wins in 2023?

FSU football is one of the odds-on favorites to win the ACC for the first time in nearly a decade. The team returns more production on both sides of the ball than anyone in the nation, plus they’ve added arguably the most impactful pieces from the transfer portal this spring.

When betting total wins totals for teams in the preseason, it takes a bit of luck to win those bets because there’s no way to account for injury luck, bad referee calls, etc.

However, when you follow a team as closely as I have the Noles over the past few years, it’s not hard to keep track of what their opponents gain/lose each year. I’ve been spot-on about common opponents like Boston College, Miami, Florida, NC State, and others in recent years. Check my most overrated teams in 2022, and 2021.

Of course, anything can happen, but when I look at probabilities and win totals for the FSU football 2023 schedule, I tend to find them winning more than nine games more times than not(considering good injury luck).

However, ESPN’s latest FPI metrics project the Noles to win 8.7 games in 2023. Let’s round that total up to nine wins. What would be the three losses? LSU and Clemson come to mind as games that would not be out of the realm of possibility.

There are rivalry games with Miami and Florida to consider, and I suppose there’s always one game a team losses each year when they have no business losing it. Florida and Miami look disorganized and will have new coaches. Pittsburgh will have a new QB and coordinator, and FSU has mauled that QB each of the past two seasons.

Lots of the teams on the schedule will have new quarters or offensive/defensive coordinators, while FSU will arguably have more talent and continuity than almost every team on the schedule, aside from LSU and Clemson.

FSU plays both teams early in the season, which likely benefits FSU. With all things considered, is ESPN missing the mark on FSU again?