FSU football: The importance of defeating Florida Gators in 2022

GAINESVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 25: Matthew Thomas #6 and Jacob Pugh #16 of the Florida State Seminoles carry a gator head out of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium after the game against the Florida Gators on November 25, 2017 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images)
GAINESVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 25: Matthew Thomas #6 and Jacob Pugh #16 of the Florida State Seminoles carry a gator head out of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium after the game against the Florida Gators on November 25, 2017 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images) /
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9th Win/Better Bowl Game

My expectation for FSU football in the preseason was 8-4, and I gave FSU a 49 percent chance to win. However, after games got played, I adjusted my win shares with five games remaining and increased FSU’s chances to win up to 55 percent.

However, after watching the last four weeks, I’d probably increase that percentage to about 75 percent with Florida’s injuries at wide receiver.

Listen, I don’t care who’s out for Florida. A win is a win, and you don’t hear them mentioning FSU playing without Jordan Travis for half the game last year.

They are still counting it as a win. An FSU win over Florida would surpass all preseason expectations and keep FSU in a position to potentially make a New Year’s Six Bowl Game (with some help from other teams).

If FSU doesn’t make an NY6 Bowl, they will still make a good bowl game with a likely high-profile opponent for a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 2016.
Not only that, but it’s more ammunition for Mike Norvell to use on the recruiting trail to attract elite talent.

It’s likely already true with eight wins, but nine wins help cement the stability narrative, which could help Mike Norvell attract coaches if he chooses to make changes to his staff or if someone left for another job.