FSU football: Adjusted win shares of five games left

November 25th vs. Florida

Here’s what I said in my game-by-game predictions before the season:

"FSU and Florida played in a hard-fought game to end the regular season last year, and the Gators came out on top after Jordan Travis exited the game for nearly a half and FSU special teams muffed a punt. Florida is the more talented team and could be better than some think, depending on how well quarterback Anthony Richardson performs. He played sparingly in last year’s game, and Emory Jones throwing three interceptions helped keep the Noles in the game. Otherwise, it could have been a blowout. Florida enters the season with questions at wide receiver and in the secondary. However, they might be able to find answers by the final regular season game. This game could go either way, but I’m going to be conservative and say the Gators win another close one."

Of all the games, this one has the most variance because we don’t know which Florida team(or Anthony Richardson will show up). Their defense isn’t good, so that makes me more confident than in the preseason, but Anthony Richardson could have a crazy game as a mobile threat. That’s the one consistent thing that has given FSU problems this year.

It’s a rivalry game, but it’ll be a night game at home, so that’s comforting. I had this game at .49 in the preseason, and I will increase this to .55. The good news is Florida still has to play Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina this year and might check out if they lose two of three or all three.

Final Thoughts

The back end of the schedule shapes up nicely for the Noles. I said on the latest episode of the Built For Playmakers podcast they had to go 3-2 at a minimum and ideally 4-1 or 5.0.

If we look at my updated win shares, they add up to 3.7 wins, and I have the Noles favored in each game(as long as they don’t suffer any major injuries).

I know a lot of FSU fans are leery of Syracuse, but I’m telling you their offense isn’t special.

Plus, I expect FSU to go into that game confident after back-to-back wins, and it’s possible Syracuse loses to either Notre Dame or Pittsburgh, or both.

That’s two very good defenses that will be physical with the Orange, and aside from two early drives, they couldn’t do anything against Clemson’s defense.

Mike Norvell said the team came to work after the Clemson loss, and hopefully, they return to practice this week with a renewed sense of urgency and understand the importance of the next five games for the program.

I believe the coaching staff understands what’s at stake, especially with how Miami and Florida look at this point. They could seize control on the state if they finish the season strong, which means the uptick in recruiting the program needs to help get back to elite status.