FSU football: ESPN’s FPI metric higher on Noles in 2022

The 2022 FSU football schedule doesn’t seem as daunting as what the Noles faced in 2021.

According to ESPN’s FPI metric, the Noles will have the 30th most difficult schedule. The 2021 schedule ranked No. 20 nationally, and the Noles check in with a No. 31 ranking going into the 2022 season.

Six of the teams on the schedule appear higher on the 2022 FPI preseason rankings:

• Clemson-No. 3
• LSU-No. 11
• Miami-No. 18
• Florida-No. 25
• NC State-No. 26
• Wake Forest-No. 30

ESPN’s FPI metric projected the Noles to win 6.1 games and a 65.4 percent chance of winning six games and going to a bowl game last season.

The 2022 projection has the Noles winning 7.1 games and an 84.5 percent chance of winning six games and going to a bowl game.

Clemson is the only team to finish in the top 10 of the final 2021 FPI rankings. NC State was No. 16, Wake Forest was No. 22, Miami was No. 23, Florida was No. 34, and Louisville was No. 46, ahead of FSU, who was at No. 51.

Other notable 2022 FPI FBS rankings:

• Louisville-No. 36
• Boston College-No. 59
• Syracuse-No. 62
• Georgia Tech-No. 67
• Louisiana-No. 72

The Noles open with Duquesne, which should be a win before traveling for a neutral site game against LSU, where they will be near a touchdown betting underdogs.

If we’re looking at FPI projections only, FSU should be favored in six of their games, and likely underdogs or coin flips in the other six. FSU will need to pull off at least one upset without suffering an upset loss themselves to reach the seven-win mark.

LSU, Miami, and Florida have the new coaching staff and roster turnover, so I’m not sure their rankings should be quite that high. Either way, these stats tell me FSU football has a chance to make a move to change the program trajectory, if they win the games they should win and win a couple of toss-up games, or games where they will be slight betting underdogs.