FSU football needs to win games in Mike Norvell’s first season, but is their path to victory going to tougher than most due to their schedule?
FSU football has struggled mightily to win games the past three seasons despite being one of the most talented teams in the nation.
The Noles return a lot of talent for the 2020 season, and with better injury luck and coaching, a lot of FSU football fans believe the Noles can win at least eight games.
That’s the benchmark most feel Mike Norvell needs to launch the Noles back to prominence.
However, CBS Sports writer Tom Fornelli believes the Noles have the second-toughest schedule in the ACC:
"Mike Norvell’s first season with the Seminoles will not be an easy one. The team’s nonconference schedule consists of two Power Five opponents in Florida and West Virginia, as well as a road game against one of the top Group of Five programs, Boise State. Then there’s the conference slate, which includes Clemson and some tricky road games against NC State, Louisville and Miami (FL). Overall: 28.03% | ACC: 21.18%"
Fornelli has his formula in how he rates a team’s strength of schedule. I prefer to look at S&P + advanced metrics from Bill Connelly. Here’s where each team on FSU’s schedule is projected:
(N)West Virginia-No. 64
(H)Samford-FCS
@ Boise State-No. 38
@ NC State-No. 62
(H) Clemson-No. 3
(H) Wake Forest-No. 81
(A) Louisville-No. 41
(H) Pittsburgh-No. 42
(A) Miami-No. 23
(H) Boston College-No. 71
(A) Syracuse-No. 95
(H) Florida-No. 7
There are some games FSU should have a big probability of winning when looking at these projections. Just on paper, they should beat West Virginia, Samford, NC State, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse. That’s six wins right there.
I’m not as high on Miami as SP+ projections, and going to Boise State and Louisville will be tough even though the Noles should have beaten Boise State and did beat Louisville last season.
The only two games that make FSU definite betting underdogs are Clemson and Florida. However, I think Nole fans will know what they have as a team after the first three games.
Projections will likely change after the product on the field can finally be observed.