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FSU Football: Analytics website predicts four losses for Seminoles

By Jason Parker

TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 8: Head Coach of the Florida State Seminoles Jimbo Fisher argues with referees after a call against the Virginia Cavaliers during the game at Doak Campbell Stadium on November 8, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida. The Seminoles beat the Cavaliers 34-20 (Photo by Jeff Gammons/Getty Images)
TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 8: Head Coach of the Florida State Seminoles Jimbo Fisher argues with referees after a call against the Virginia Cavaliers during the game at Doak Campbell Stadium on November 8, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida. The Seminoles beat the Cavaliers 34-20 (Photo by Jeff Gammons/Getty Images) /
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FSU football is going to have a tough road to get back to the College Football Playoff – but one site is predicting a doomsday scenario in Tallahassee.

There is no doubt that if FSU football wants to win the ACC this season and get back to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2014, there is going to be some work ahead of them. A schedule that includes both teams who played for last year’s title as well as in-state rivals – and a team who gave them the worst conference loss in program history – is waiting for the Seminoles in just a few weeks.

While there is plenty of talk about how far the Noles can go this season, one group is using math to destroy the Florida State season before it even starts. College Football Analytics did a game by game prediction for every FBS game this season – and they are not fans of the Noles.

Here’s how they figured out there formula:

"The ratings are based off of the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem…All scoring efficiencies are adjusted to reflect home field advantage and the strength of the competition. The adjusted scoring efficiencies for offense and defense are shown as well as the offense and defense of the given team’s opponents that culminates with a total strength of schedule calculation."

And here is the damage they did:

"vs. Alabama / Loss 32.4-31.6vs. Louisiana Monroe / Win 52.7-21.1vs. Miami / Loss 37.9-34.9vs. N.C. State / Win 35.5-33.9at Wake Forest / Win 32.5-25.7at Duke / Win 38.3-24.2vs. Louisville / Loss 46.3-35.1at Boston College / Win 33.8-25.4vs. Syracuse / Win 42.4-25.1at Clemson / Loss 43-34vs. Delaware State / Win 46.4-15.5at Florida / Win 33.9-24.7"

Nope, nope, nope – not going to happened. I don’t care how many simulations there are, there is no way on God’s beautiful earth that FSU football is going to lose four games this coming season. Could it happen? Of course. Is it going to? Barring an epic meltdown, I’m confident that the Seminoles will come nowhere close to having four losses.

Related Story: Why opening rankings don't matter for FSU, others

Some of the other teams of interest in this analytic breakdown include – and you’re going to laugh at this one – the Miami Hurricanes being undefeated this regular season along with Alabama and Louisville, while Clemson was projected to be 11-1. The Florida Gators? Well, they were slated to go 4-8…something they know a lot about.

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