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FSU Football: Why opening rankings of season do not really matter

By Jason Parker

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - OCTOBER 08: Jacob Pugh #16 and DeMarcus Walker #44 of the Florida State Seminoles celebrate a sack on Brad Kaaya #15 of the Miami Hurricanes during a game at Hard Rock Stadium on October 8, 2016 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - OCTOBER 08: Jacob Pugh #16 and DeMarcus Walker #44 of the Florida State Seminoles celebrate a sack on Brad Kaaya #15 of the Miami Hurricanes during a game at Hard Rock Stadium on October 8, 2016 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
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FSU football is not starting the season as the top ranked team in the major polls – and that might be the best thing that could happen for the Seminoles.

When the first rankings came out for the 2017 season, some FSU football fans were a little upset that the Seminoles were ranked third in the first set of teams – which shows that the Seminoles might be fully back from the lost decade just years before (and that some fans in garnet and gold are back to being spoiled).

While the Seminoles are trailing Alabama and Ohio State in the first rankings of the year, the idea that Florida State isn’t in the perfect spot might be the furthest thing from the truth. In fact, not being the top ranked team might be the best thing – because it’s going to be a battle to stay in the top 10 judging by recent history.

The folks over at FBSchedules.com recently did a story on how accurate the top 25 coaches poll rankings to start each of the last five seasons – and the funny part is that they haven’t been all that accurate since the 2012 season:

"Teams that were in the preseason Top 10 and still ranked in the Top 10 in the final poll: 54%  Teams that were no longer in the Top 10 by the final poll, but still in the Top 25: 26%Teams that started in the Top 10 and weren’t ranked at all by the final poll: 18%Teams that were in the preseason Top 25 and still ranked in the Top 25 in the final poll: 62%Team that started in the Top 25 and weren’t ranked at all by the final poll: 38%"

So, for those who hate math like we do, that means that the averages over the last five years show that FSU football as just a slightly better than average chance of even being ranked in the top 10 by the time the season is over. In fact, the number say that two teams ranked right now that high won’t have a number by their names when it’s all said and done.

Related Story: Chop Chat 2017 Preseason Rankings: No. 5-1

In the previous 20 rankings to start a season before this year, just two teams have started the year as the top ranked team and finished that way – 1999 FSU football and USC in 2004. It’s not saying that Alabama is in trouble at this point in the year, but it means there is a decent chance you will see a team other than the Crimson Tide (maybe the Noles) hoisting the national title.

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