Florida State entered its Week 0 matchup against New Mexico State as a 30+ point favorite and won by just a little more than half that: 34-17. It didn’t look particularly easy for the Seminoles, either, and the sportsbooks took notice.
There have been and will be Florida State fans who dismiss the performance as a rusty Week 0 outing with a vanilla game plan, but Vegas thought enough of it, or took on enough action on SMU, to move the line for Week 1 by a whole point, and through a key number.
Ahead of Week 0, SMU was favored by 2.5 in Week 1 against Florida State, but on Saturday night, the line moved all the way to SMU -3.5 (in the FanDuel Sportsbook), which is a critical move through the field goal. Whether it was Vegas adjusting its power rating of FSU or the books taking on too much action to hold the line at 2.5, it’s a notable move that says a good bit about how the Seminoles are being viewed after struggling with New Mexico State.
SMU vs Florida State Week 1 betting odds
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- SMU -162
- Florida State +134
Spread
- SMU -3.5 (-105)
- Florida State +3.5 (-115)
Total
- 53.5 (over -110/under -110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Florida State gets a meaningful downgrade after Week 0
For now, the juice is still slightly leaning towards Florida State at this 3.5 number, but that’s not nearly as significant as the line moving through three, which is a key number in football handicapping, for obvious reasons.
3.5-point underdogs win games outright frequently. By no means is Vegas saying Florida State is entirely outclassed by SMU, but an upset is looking a bit less likely after Week 0. Drastic line moves after Week 0 tend to be rare because there aren’t many data points.
Maybe New Mexico State is going to be a Conference USA contender this year. Probably not after a 4-8 season in 2025, but it’s enough of a possibility, and the Week 1 lines have been out long enough that sportsbooks won’t want to overreact and potentially leave a hearty middle between the opening and closing lines.
Still, the preseason doubts about this Florida State team are undeniably lingering after Saturday night. The rebuilt offensive line didn’t look to be in a good place, the defense had very little pass rush with a few too many coverage busts on the back end, and Ashton Daniels was the same quarterback he’s been throughout his entire career, serving up an ugly interception.
The good news is no new concerns necessarily arose, so it’s hard to downgrade FSU too much, but that’s not exactly the silver lining this team and its hot-seat head coach were hoping for.
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