Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but since Florida State was left out of the 2023 four-team College Football Playoff at 13-0, the Seminoles have gone 7-18. The program hasn’t won a road game since November 2023, and last year Mike Norvell submitted his fourth losing record in six years at the helm.
Needless to say, Norvell’s job is on the line in 2026. And needless to say, Florida State needs to give its fans something to cheer about, because even the most passionate fan bases in the country can have apathy set in if losing persists for too long.
Most of those who haven’t given in to apathy have settled somewhere between frustration and fury, so a Week 0 matchup against New Mexico State, which went 4-8 last season in Year 2 under Tony Sanchez, should be a cathartic experience in Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday night.
Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on the CW as Norvell takes back over play-calling duties and does so with FSU’s third different transfer quarterback in as many years, Ashton Daniels, making his first start as a Seminole.
Yet, even with uncertainty on the FSU side, the Noles are heavy favorites over the Aggies.
New Mexico State vs. Florida State odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- New Mexico State +3500
- Florida State -20000
Spread
- New Mexico State +32.5 (-115)
- Florida State -32.5 (-105)
Total
- 52.5 (over -115/under -105)
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Florida State vs. New Mexico State prediction
Last season, New Mexico State played one power conference opponent, Tennessee, and the Vols rolled to a 42-9 win. Though last year’s Tennessee offense was more talented, at least on paper, than this year’s Florida State unit, the Aggies may have a tough time holding the Seminoles to even just 42 points.
New Mexico State can’t match many teams' talent, so they run a 3-3-5 defense that is a difficult and unique prep for most offenses around the country. Not Florida State’s, though. FSU defensive coordinator Tony White runs a similar system, and presumably, the offense sees it every day, so in that sense, New Mexico State is the perfect Week 0 opponent for the Seminoles to run the score up on.
While their records look similar, last year New Mexico State finished 117th by net adjusted EPA/play. Florida State finished 17th. By net success rate, the gap is from No. 106 to No. 28. FSU should dominate on a down-to-down basis, and at least against lesser opponents, the Noles have the type of explosive playmakers who can turn what is expected to be a more methodical offensive approach into a quick-strike unit for a night.
On the other side of the ball, the Aggies have a new starting quarterback in Furman transfer Trey Hedden. He’s seemingly an upgrade over Logan Fife, who eventually ceded the job to Adam Damante, but he won’t meaningfully improve their outcome, at least not against Power 4 opponents.
FSU isn’t recruiting to the level it used to. It isn’t loaded with as much blue-chip talent as it should be, but the talent gap here is still too much to overcome. Plus, Norvell has some incentive to run up the score a bit with so much pressure on his job. I think the Noles keep their foot on the gas longer than anybody would expect.
Prediction: Florida 52 New Mexico State 12
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