No. 4 Virginia Tech
I put the Virginia Tech game at No. 4 for a couple of reasons. It's the week after the Clemson game that nobody expects FSU to win, and FSU can't allow that game to turn into two consecutive losses.
Virginia Tech lost A LOT from their team last season, and they have two new coordinators who nobody of note really wanted.
Point blank, it's a game FSU should win. It's a home game, and FSU should be no worse than 5-4 going into the Virginia Tech matchup.
A win against Virginia Tech makes them bowl-eligible and gives them a shot to reach eight wins, and 7-5 at worst.
A home loss against a bad Virginia Tech team after likely losing against Clemson? That would mean FSU would have to win the next two games on the road at NC State and Florida to reach 7-5 at best.
FSU losing two of its last four games wouldn't be ideal, but if they lost to Virginia Tech, I'd say their chances of winning both road games remaining aren't great. They must win that Virginia Tech game.