If you're a regular reader of the site, you know I've been more bullish on FSU football in 2025 than most. I predicted FSU to win eight games in the regular season weeks ago after breaking down the schedule.
If they win anything less than that, it'll be a major disappointment, barring injuries to multiple key players. They have more talent than nearly 70 percent of the teams they'll face, and play several teams projected to win six games or less. The schedule isn't difficult, and FSU added two proven coordinators to help Mike Norvell right the ship.
I know fans are in a wait-and-see mode, but last year has nothing to do with this year, just as 2023 had no bearing on 2024.
Respected football analyst Phil Steele gave his forecast on FSU recently, and it's good to see he and I are on the same page.
“Florida St last made my Most Improved list in ’22 and went from 5 to 10 wins, but this year they are my #1 Most Improved team and will contend in the ACC.”
Offense
Phil Steele:“In 23 they had eight starters back including QB Travis. My computer called for 39.2 ppg, their highest since 2013. In the regular season they hit that with 38.8 ppg! With QB Travis they avg 451 ypg and in the 3 games he missed just 218 ypg.
“In 2024 they had one of the biggest dropoffs ever, falling to 270 pg and scoring cut by more than half to just 15 ppg! This year the offense should have a Stock Market type bounce up with new OC Gus Malzahn and all 4 units will be much more productive so they will at least double last year’s total.”
Defense
Phil Steele: “In ’23 nine starters were back, and my computer called for them to allow 19.8 ppg and they gave up 19.3! Last year they lost a #1, two #2, a #3 and #7 DC off the unit. Last year my computer called for the defense to rise lo allowing 26.6 ppg and they allowed 28.0 ppg (miss by 1.4).
“This year they should be stronger in all 3 areas and bring in DC Tony White who has fielded 4 straight top 25 D’s at and . My computer is calling for 24.2 ppg.”
My Thoughts
I said before the 2023 season that everything hinges on how well the offense plays, and the same will hold true for 2025. If FSU can average 30+ ppg, they'll win 8+ games because I'm not worried about the defense. As bad as things were in 2024, the defense kept FSU in games until the second half, even though they knew the offense couldn't score points and was terrible.
Tony White's defenses at Nebraska only allowed 18 ppg in 2023 and 19.5 in 2024 after Nebraska allowed 27.6 before White arrived. I think FSU's defense will be slightly better than Steele's projection.
The defense has a better coordinator and a more flexible defense that can adapt based on the opponent's strengths and weaknesses. Tony White had a top 20 defense in his first two seasons at Nebraska with lesser talent. He's accustomed to implementing his defense at new places, so I expect similar results in 2025.
I believe last year was an outlier, and I agree FSU will surprise folks in 2025. Thomas Castellanos needs to take care of the ball and avoid turnovers like Jordan Travis in 2022-23. If he can do that and FSU has any semblance of a rushing attack? Forget about it!