Why FSU football is a betting favorite over California Bears

I wrote last week that football games are all about the matchups. I expected the FSU defense to have its best showing all season against the Memphis Tigers, even though Memphis had a good quarterback, etc. The FSU defense played more than well enough to win, holding the Tigers to fewer than five yards per play. Memphis scored half of their 20 points off the FSU offense turning the ball over twice in the first half.

I wrote about bettors looking at California as betting underdogs like it was free money. The betting line opened at -6.5 and quickly went to -2.5, with FSU as the betting favorites. The over/under point total is 44.5, implying a 24-21 win for FSU. That jives with how I see this game. Frankly, if the FSU offense had any semblance of a pulse, they'd blow this team out.

Here's why.

California relies on its rushing attack predominately, which doesn't consist of much running with its quarterbacks. We saw FSU show it can be stout against the traditional rushing attack last week, which I predicted. The thing that gave FSU the biggest issues were linebackers in coverage, which has been a weakness all year. Nevertheless, Memphis was +3 in turnover margin and only managed 13 first-half points.

California had a similar game against Auburn, where they upset the Tigers a couple of weeks ago on the road. California forced FIVE turnovers and only managed 21 points and 332 total yards. California only managed 2.9 yards per rush. They are not an explosive passing team, either.

This is another case of the FSU defense, while not perfect, is good enough to beat California. If the FSU offense shows any life whatsoever, they can defeat this team.