FSU football: Where does ESPN's FPI metric rank the Noles going into 2024?

FSU football surpassed nearly everyone's expectations going into the 2023 season. I was one of a handful of folks predicting FSU to surpass its expected win total last year. I predicted FSU to go undefeated, win the ACC, and make the College Football Playoff. They got robbed of the opportunity to play in the College Football Playoff, so there will always be that what-if factor.  

One metric that's not perfect by any means, but I like to use to gauge what others think of FSU is ESPN's FPI metric. The Noles had an expected win total of 8.7 wins according to the metric last season. ESPN recently released their 2024 FPI metric, and ironically the Noles have an 8.8 expected win total. The FPI metric puts FSU at a 2.3 percent chance of going 13-0 in 2024. It gives FSU a 93.2 percent chance to win six games(remember, a few years ago fans were hoping FSU would be bowl-eligible). It gives FSU a 26.2 percent chance to win the ACC and a 35.9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

It gives FSU (No. 11) a 6.1 percent chance to make the National Title game and a 2.5 percent chance to win a National Title. Those percentages represent the highest ACC team, with Clemson (No. 15) a few spots behind the Noles. Ironically, the Florida Gators (No. 20) project to go 6-6, and Miami (No. 23) projects to go 8-4. If the latter only wins eight games, Mario Cristobal should be fired with that cupcake schedule they have. If Billy Napier gets Florida to six wins, they should keep him. Louisville checks in at No. 21 as the third-highest ACC team according to the metric. The SMU Mustangs (No. 25) round out the rest of the ACC schools in the top 25.

It should come as no surprise, nine of the top 10 schools involve the SEC or B1G conference(rolls eyes). I'll have my game-by-game predictions for the Noles as we get closer to the season. Just like last year, they'll win more than the ESPN projections suggest.