FSU baseball: Why starting Carson Dorsey against Stetson makes sense

FSU baseball will take on the Stetson Hatters in the first game of the Tallahassee Regional on Friday at noon. It'll be the first regional game hosted at FSU since 2018, and there are only limited spaces available as of Wednesday. It should be a great atmosphere as FSU baseball chases that elusive National Title. Noles247's Brett Nevitt reports that FSU will start Carson Dorsey in game one against the Hatters. Many fans hoped to see ace Jamie Arnold in game one, but I wrote why I wouldn't start him against Stetson here. I stated I would go with Conner Whittaker, but I can understand why Link Jarrett went with Dorsey despite his shortcomings in his last few outings. Here's why starting Dorsey makes sense:  

• FSU is 6-2 in his eight starts, and he has gone at least five innings in five of those
• Dorsey has outstanding stuff when he's on
• Dorsey faced Stetson for one inning earlier this year and sat them down in order
• Stetson isn't a good offensive team
• Allows Jamie Arnold to face a more potent offensive lineup

The key for Dorsey is confidence. I think pitching at Dick Howser against an opponent he faced earlier this year and had some success should help his confidence. Stetson is limited offensively. They don't hit for much power and strike out in 20 percent of their at-bats. They are nowhere near as good as Georgia Tech, Virginia, or Duke, who Dorsey faced in his last three outings. The biggest thing for Dorsey is avoiding walks. If he does that, he should have no problem with this Stetson lineup. They have one guy hitting over .310, only two guys with 10+ home runs, and no one else with more than six. If he has a solid outing, it's a chance to build his confidence back, which could build dividends moving forward. If he's not successful against Stetson, it likely means you aren't going to go far with only one viable starter. However, if he's on, that could pay dividends in his next start against a more difficult opponent. The bottom line is that FSU is a -395 betting favorite over Stetson and should beat them, even if it becomes a slugfest. The smart move is using your ace against an opponent that poses more of an offensive threat in game two(if Alabama beats UCF). UCF has a limited offense as well. If they upset Alabama, FSU would really be in the driver's seat.