Calculating FSU football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

Florida State Spring Football Garnet and Gold Spring Showcase Game
Florida State Spring Football Garnet and Gold Spring Showcase Game / Don Juan Moore/GettyImages
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FSU football won the ACC title in 2023, going undefeated with wins over out-of-conference SEC foes LSU and Florida. It wasn't enough to make the four-team College Football Playoff because people in suits care more about money than integrity in the game. One reason the FSU snub happened was everyone knew the format would change to a 12-team playoff in 2024. That guarantees anyone who goes undefeated in a major conference will make the College Football Playoff. I suppose we can argue if the ACC and Big 12 are major conferences anymore in football. The perception is they are inferior to the B1G and SEC, which is weird because the ACC had a winning record against the SEC in 2023.

Nevertheless, I agree more teams in those two conferences treat football as the most important sport than compared to the ACC. FSU and Clemson are the only two who can consistently compete at a high level, and it's debatable if Clemson will climb that mountain again. However, we've seen FSU football do it under three different coaches in our lifetimes. The goal is to win the ACC every year that FSU remains, but what happens if they don't?

That would mean FSU would have to obtain an at-large bid. How many wins would it take for that to happen? Kelley Ford's model has them at 10-2 in the regular season. Let's look at FSU's 2024 schedule to see where those wins would likely come