The Oregon State Beavers lost their first game in the post-season against St. Mary's after not playing for over two weeks because they didn't have a conference tournament to play in. The Beavers played their final regular-season game on May 17th and didn't play St. Mary's until May 30th.
The Beavers rebounded to beat TCU, avenge their loss to St. Mary's, and defeated USC twice to earn a chance to host the Super Regional against FSU baseball as the No. 8 overall seed.
The games against USC were not competitive, and that seems to have fueled some extra confidence in Oregon State fans.
Oregon State Fan
That's cute, and I respect Oregon State as a program. However, their success in past years has nothing to do with their team this year. Frankly, if they played in the ACC or SEC they wouldn't have been a top-eight seed. They barely made it with the No. 39th strength of schedule nationally.
Also, they haven't faced a team like FSU. Oregon State fans will point to their recent wins over TCU or USC, but those teams are not in the same league as the Noles.
There's a reason oddmakers have the game as a pick'em, with FSU traveling nearly 3,000 miles to play on the road.
FSU hits for a better batting average, better on-base percentage, more power, better defense, and better starting pitching than those two teams.
TCU was 5-10 against Quad 1 teams, and USC was 6-8. FSU was 13-10 in Quad 1 games, and Oregon State was 10-11-1.
I'll add that FSU played more of the upper tier of Quad 1 teams compared to Oregon State, which is why their overall strength of schedule is better.
FSU has the better numbers offensively, and their pitching has faced several offenses better than Oregon State. If they played 100 times on a neutral field, I'd bet money FSU would win more than half of those games. However, it's the best two of three and the margin for error is very small. Ultimately, whoever wins this series will come down to who executes and makes the fewest mistakes. May the best team win.