FSU head coach Mike Norvell was riding high a year ago. He signed a major contract extension keeping him at FSU for the foreseeable future after a 23-4 record in back-to-back seasons, including FSU's first ACC title in a decade.
FSU should have earned its first College Football Playoff appearance since the inaugural playoff started in 2014. FSU wasn't afforded the opportunity with ESPN personalities and TV executives making decisions that hurt the integrity of the sport.
Nevertheless, FSU started the 2024 season as a top 10 preseason team, with the opportunity to show why they should be among the top programs nationally. What ensued was a 2-10 season at the worst possible moment that made the last two seasons look flukeish.
It is the worst FSU season in most of our lifetimes, and Mike Norvell likely would have been fired if not for that monster contract extension and huge buyout clause if he got fired.
FSU settled for firing both coordinators and hiring more proven coaches to right the ship. Both have experience in Power programs with high expectations. Gus Malzahn brings tons of head coaching experience from the SEC that could help Mike Norvell navigate the recruiting wars more effectively.
The additions have paid dividends, with FSU doing major work in the Winter Transfer Portal and in the December Early Signing Period to salvage a recruiting class in the 50s nationally at one point during the 2024 season.
The guys in the desert have not released win totals for FSU yet, but I wrote how I expect the over/under to be around 7.5 a week or so ago.
We already know what the 2025 FSU schedule looks like, and it's set up nicely for the Noles to succeed early, working out some kinks with a new staff before jumping into some deep water in the back half.
I could realistically see FSU going into the final four games with a 6-2 or 5-3 record with four games remaining.
The final four games consist of three road games, including at Clemson, NC State, and Florida. The lone home game in that stretch is against Virginia Tech.
It's hard to say right now since we don't know much about the teams, but I'd imagine FSU will be betting favorites in two of those four. If FSU goes into that final stretch at 5-3 and splits the final four to go 7-5?
If they go into that final stretch at 6-2 and split the final four to go 8-4? Is that enough to get Mike Norvell off YOUR hot seat?
Notice I said YOUR hot seat, and not FSU administration. If Mike Norvell goes 8-4, he's not going to get fired with that buyout because he can likely sell that as progress from 2-10. The problem is he shouldn't have to do that after going 23-4.
If he goes 7-5, it might depend on who the losses come against and how bad they are. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on this.