No. 7 Florida State will host Kent State on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. After a bye following their rout of East Texas A&M, the Noles likely used the week to prepare for Virginia and rival Miami.
No disrespect to Kent State, but they don’t have the horses to compete with FSU, and it’s why they are a six or more touchdown betting underdog against the Noles. FSU was a 44.5-point betting favorite early Saturday morning on FanDuel, which is one point lower than earlier in the week, indicating the line has dropped slightly.
Here’s the catch. The line has dropped a point, even though 91 percent of the money on the spread is on FSU, and 85 percent of the bets are on FSU. That’s always a red flag for me. My rule of thumb is when one side has 80 percent or more, and the line doesn’t move or goes in the other direction, the guys in the desert know something.
It was something we pointed out in the season opener against Alabama. Over 80 percent of the bets were on Alabama to cover the spread against FSU, and the Noles beat them straight up.
As my colleague points out here. FSU could come out flat coming off the bye week. FSU will want to get its starters out as soon as possible to avoid injuries, and there’s always the backdoor cover late in the game when it means nothing. My prediction was 48-10, which means if you had bet on FSU to cover the spread, you’d lose. We could be wrong, and FSU could run the score up with its backups like they did against East Texas A&M. However, Kent State is probably a smidge better than those guys. FSU could come out laser-focused, but a lull at different points in the game wouldn’t shock me.
I’d be careful betting on this one! T