FSU baseball (41-14) learned they will travel to face the Oregon State Beavers (45-13-1 in the Super Regionals after the Beavers defeated USC for the second consecutive night to advance.
It will be the first time the two teams have ever played, and FSU's late-season experience playing the California Bears could pay dividends since it will be a similar experience traveling to the West Coast.
Ironically, Oregon State is very similar to the team FSU just swept in the Tallahassee Regionals, Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs played a tougher overall schedule (No. 20) but didn't quite have the success Oregon State (No. 40) had against better competition. Oregon State went 10-11 against Quad 1 and (13-0-1) against Quad 2 teams. FSU played the No. 24 toughest schedule and went 13-10 against Quad 1 and 6-3 against Quad 2 teams.
The Bulldogs were (10-19) against Quad 1 and (3-3) against Quad 2 teams. These numbers include the regional games.
Here's a look at how similar the numbers are for both teams:
Oregon State | Mississippi State |
|---|---|
Batting Average-.292 | Batting Average-.304 |
HR-98 | HR-103 |
Slugging %-.508 | Slugging %-.530 |
On-Base %-.411 | On-Base %-.401 |
Strikeouts-498 (25% of AB's) | Strikeouts-494(25% of AB's) |
ERA-4.24 | ERA-4.44 |
Strikeouts-608 in 519.2 innings | Strikeouts-653 in 496.2 innings |
Walks-245 | Walks-214 |
Opposing Batting Avg.-.229 | Opposing Batting Avg-227 |
Fielding %-.982 | Fielding %-.972 |
Ironically, Mississippi State has a slight edge in most of these categories, but the biggest difference is on defense. Both offenses depend on the home run to generate runs and are not major threats to steal bases(Oregon State has fewer steals than Mississippi State).
Mississippi State pitchers had a higher strikeout rate, betting opposing batting average, and likely faced better offenses overall than the Beavers. They faced better pitching overall, as well.
The best win Oregon State has was a 7-1 road win against UCLA (No. 10 RPI overall) in mid-April. They lost four games against the Oregon Ducks (No. 21 RPI overall) and lost two of three against Nebraska (No. 55 RPI overall) in late March. The USC team they beat twice in a row ranks No. 39 overall in RPI, and FSU ranks No. 9.
If FSU were playing in Tallahassee, they'd be clear-betting favorites over Oregon State, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them as favorites on the road in Corvallis. All FSU has to do is not beat FSU. They have performed well on the road this year (12-6) and have the starting pitching and offense to take care of business to reach the College World Series for the second consecutive season.