FSU is a championship contender this year according to 247Sports' Bud Elliott's blue-chip ratio. The Seminoles are at the bottom of the list of 18 teams with a 54 percent blue-chip ratio, but hey they are on the list.
The science behind the blue-chip ratio is simple - sign more four-and-five-star players than two-and three-star players. Elliott doesn't clarify if he's using a composite ranking or the 247Sports ranking. This isn't an exact science and all blue-chip prospects are not created equal, but the idea that the teams with the most talent have the best chance of winning seems pretty obvious.
Ohio State tops the list at a remarkable 82% while in-state rivals Florida and Miami are both at 64%, which means the Seminoles continue to lag behind them in recruiting based on this metric. Elliott adds the following:
"Tennessee and Florida State return to the fold for the first time in a while," Elliott wrote. "If I had to guess, South Carolina and Ole Miss are likely to make the list grow to 20 in 2026, and no other school is remotely close to joining the club."
Blue-Chip Ratio 2025 🚨
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) July 17, 2025
The 18 CFB teams can actually win the national championship in 2025 🏆@BudElliott3 breaks down the teams who have recruited well enough to win it all 🔗 https://t.co/740WBvmF25 pic.twitter.com/Du7ZwtKDgO
Here's where the blue-chip ratio misses the boat
It's a good sign that FSU is back on this list. It shows that the recruiting might not be as bad as it appears even though Mike Norvell has never signed a top 10 class. But as was previously mentioned, not all blue-chip prospects are equal.
According to Elliott's metric, the 2013 FSU team that won the BCS championship had a 53% BCR, which is right in line with the 2025 Seminoles. But that team had a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback and multiple top 100 NFL picks on the two-deep, which has to count for more on any metric.
Clemson has a 55% BCR, which means that the Clemson-FSU game is a toss-up according to this metric, but the belief is that Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik is a first-round pick in the NFL Draft and that should hold more weight. Alabama has an 89% ratio, but they have question marks at a few positions that should narrow the gap between the Tide and the Seminoles.
The BCR is something to monitor as the season progresses, especially if FSU is playing at a high level and pulls off an upset or two in the first half of the season.