Florida State baseball was in the running for a top-eight national seed before getting upset by the Pittsburgh Panthers in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals. FSU likely needed to beat Pitt and one more team to have had a realistic shot to capture it.
However, the loss immediately eliminated them from the discussion. Florida State will host a regional in Tallahassee, but the biggest question is what seed they will receive. Who will be in their regional, and what national seed would they be matched up with?
According to D1baseball’s latest projections, the Noles will receive the No. 11 seed and will be matched up with No. 6 Texas Longhorns:
D1Baseball has Alabama projected as the No. 7 seed hosting Jacksonville State, UCF, and Long Island. The field of 64 will be announced at 11 a.m. Monday on ESPN 2. https://t.co/eZNQx2WahC pic.twitter.com/zyS3Q9IJT4
— Davis Cornell (@DavisCornell2) May 23, 2026
This would be a real decent draw for Florida State as the No. 11 seed overall.
The Tallahassee Regional with Oklahoma State, Kentucky, and Binghamton would be about as clear a path to the Super Regionals as FSU could ask for. They match up well with all of those teams and would only travel to Texas for the Super Regionals(if Texas won its regional). However, don’t discount Miami in that Texas Regional if those were the four teams. If Miami or another team upset Texas, Florida State would host the Super Regional.
If Florida State had to face Texas, it wouldn’t be unfamiliar, since the Noles traveled to Texas earlier in the season to play in the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series against Michigan, Auburn, and Nebraska.
Florida State went 1-2 in those three games, but Link Jarrett has a much better idea of what his team is now compared to then. Texas would be a difficult matchup since they have pitchers who have crazy strikeout numbers. However, their offense isn’t anything special, but they are excellent on defense with a .980 fielding percentage.
This projection is better for the Noles than a projection a few weeks ago, placing them as the No. 9 seed and matching up against the rival Florida Gators in the Super Regional. Florida won all three games against the Noles in the regular season.
So, while Florida State losing to Pittsburgh was a gut-punch, this projection wouldn’t be the end of the world for the Noles. At least they wouldn’t have to travel to the West Coast like they did last year against Oregon State.
The Field of 64 will be announced on Monday, and we'll find out what the path back to the College World Series looks like.
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