The upcoming Florida State vs. Clemson game is a hard one to gauge. We don’t know which FSU team will show up on the road or if Clemson has quit on Dabo Swinney. It’s likely why Clemson is barely the betting favorite at home in a primetime game.
If the FSU that showed up against Alabama or Wake Forest shows up? We like the Noles to put the stamp on Clemson. FSU should score points because Clemson’s defense isn’t what it was a few years ago. The biggest concern is the FSU defense stopping the Clemson offense. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik is the type to give the FSU defense fits if they can’t get pressure and he’s mobile. FSU has struggled to defend offenses with quarterbacks like him all season. However, Clemson’s offense hasn’t been as good as it was last year when playing teams with a pulse.
That changed when the Tigers faced the Duke Blue Devils. Clemson scored 45 points, had 560 total yards, and averaged 7.77 yards per play. Did Clemson find some magic, or was it a product of Duke’s suspect defense? It’s probably a little of both.
Duke ranks No. 83 defensively according to FEI advanced metrics. They allow 28 points per game and 6.07 yards per play on average. Duke allows opposing offenses to convert third downs 43 percent of the time (Clemson was 3 of 10 but also 3 of 3 on fourth down).
Clemson had only scored 30 or more points twice all season before the Duke game, and that was against lowly Boston College and North Carolina.
FSU’s defense has its warts, but it only allows 20 points per game and 4.81 yards per play on average. They rank No. 48 defensively according to FEI. The biggest challenge will be not allowing Klubnik to stand in the pocket all day and to make tackles in space when Clemson throws the short stuff. Clemson will look to follow the blueprint that Virginia and Pittsburgh used, and hopefully, FSU coaches self-scouted in the bye week to make adjustments.
If FSU plays with the energy we saw in the latter part of the Wake Forest game, we like their chances.