Danny Kannell sets the bar for Mike Norvell to save his job and it's hard to argue with

Mike Norvell may be heading into the year dropping quotes about how he doesn’t “fear failure” and telling reporters he doesn’t believe he’s coaching for his job. But even with a $50+ million buyout tied to his massive eight-year contract extension from 2023, it’s undeniable that he’s on one of the hottest seats in all of college football. 

Norvell has won just seven of Florida State’s last 24 games after the Seminoles 13-0 campaign in 2023, which ended with an Orange Bowl embarrassment at the hands of Georgia. If you count that game, it’s seven wins in his last 25. That’s flatly unacceptable, and the buyout is the only thing that saved him last year amid a 2-7 collapse down the stretch. 

2026 isn’t just about an incremental step forward for Norvell; it’s about saving his job, and that will take a leap and maybe even a bound in the right direction. On that, just about everyone can agree, but where exactly does that bar lie? Many fans want him out before the Noles take the field in Week 0 against New Mexico State; others see his end coming a week later after opening ACC play with SMU at Doak Campbell Stadium. The hopeful bunch thinks the turnaround is coming. 

Danny Kannell, former Florida State quarterback, can be counted amongst the realists. He’s not necessarily expecting this outcome, but for him, the bar is eight wins. If Norvell can get that done, Kannell thinks he will have bought himself another trip around the sun as the head coach in Tallahassee. 

Danny Kannell thinks Mike Norvell is fired if he fails to reach eight wins

Kannell described the ‘us against the world’ mentality that Norvell needs to breed in that locker room, but he didn’t provide the path to eight wins. With one of the toughest schedules in the ACC, it’s much harder to find than some might think. Now, that, of course, is a reflection on the state of the program under Norvell, but a tough schedule with two brutal non-conference matchups doesn’t help matters. 

The clear losses

Let’s face it, as much as it would be a dream to pull another upset on Alabama or knock Mario Cristobal and Miami down a peg after their run to the national championship game last year, those matchups, both on the road, are losses for the Noles. 

Even if everything hits right in Tallahassee, FSU just cannot match the resources those two programs are spending on their rosters right now, and won’t be able to for a few years, as Norvell and athletic director Michael Alford got off to a slow start in the NIL space, instead allocating their resources for stadium renovations and a new football facility. 

Miami and Alabama are both losses. As tough as it is to admit, so is the Week 13 Sunshine Showdown. That’s three. 

The surefire wins

Florida State is going to beat New Mexico State, Central Arkansas, and Boston College. If it does not beat New Mexico State, Central Arkansas, and Boston College, Norvell should be fired on the spot. 

The toss-ups

With three clear losses and three clear wins, that leaves six games to decide the season. Norvell needs 5 of them to go his way by Norvell’s logic (unless he’s counting a bowl game win, which would ultimately be meaningless and too late to decide on Norvell’s future). 

• Week 1 vs. SMU
• Week 5 vs. Virginia
• Week 6 at Louisville
• Week 9 vs. Clemson
• Week 11 at Pittsburgh
• Week 12 vs. NC State

Of that list, Virginia, Pittsburgh, and NC State are likely the most beatable, but it’s hard to say for sure. Getting five wins out of those six games seems unlikely, but not impossible. The plan is there for FSU to get to eight wins and for Norvell, at least by Kannell’s estimation, to save his job. Whether that’s good news or not is a matter of personal opinion.

However, if Norvell does deliver eight wins, it's hard to say FSU should go ahead and pay his massive buyout instead of investing that money into the roster. It's not a one-to-one comparison because the fervor in the donor base will be greater to pay to get rid of Norvell if he submits another losing record than it would be to pitch in for his 2027 roster, but the idea there would still be sound.

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