Third Down Defense
NC State is solid offensively on third downs, as they convert in those situations 40.32 percent of the time. They have 65 first downs from rushing the ball and 118 from passing.
The passing defense is something the FSU has struggled mightily with this season. FSU has been gashed on the underneath routes because their defensive backs play off, and the safeties play too deep.
The linebackers usually spot drop too deep or crowd the line of scrimmage, leaving a huge void behind them and in front of the safeties. It’s an area CJ Bailey will exploit if their adjustment isn’t made.
NC State will convert third downs in short-yardage situations with its rushing attack if they have success on early downs. They convert third and three or less 53 percent of the time when they run it. They are not afraid to go for it on fourth down either, so FSU will need to be wary of understanding that they will go into a four-down mindset once they reach certain areas on the field.
If FSU can keep NC State to 35 percent or less on third down conversions, that'll probably be enough to get the win.