Can FSU avoid turning the ball over?
The difference in FSU going into this game, 3-2 instead of 5-0, is the six turnovers the offense has had in the past two games. FSU avoiding turnovers doesn’t necessarily guarantee they win, but it raises the probability through the roof.
The negatives that come with turnovers are a compounding effect. The offense loses the opportunity to score, usually losing field position, momentum, and it takes the home crowd right out of the game.
There’s a certain luck component with turnovers, but Pat Narduzzi’s aggressive defenses usually generate their fair share of turnovers each year. They have forced only seven turnovers in five games; their goal is to create havoc and take the ball away.
It'll come down to ball security and making good decisions. Two different FSU running backs have lost fumbles in the last two games. Receiver Duce Robinson has fumbled way too much as a skill player, and Thomas Castellanos can't force things when he's late with throws or trying to make something happen.
If FSU avoid turnovers, their chances to win and cover the spread increase significantly.