Florida State (5-6) football will travel to Gainesville this week to face its rival, the Florida Gators (3-8). FSU has been in this situation under Mike Norvell before, needing a win in the Swamp against a Florida team with an interim head coach to become bowl eligible. The Noles lost that game, but will this season be different?
FSU is the better team on paper, but they haven’t won a road game since winning in the Swamp in 2023 with a backup quarterback. That’s right, they haven’t won a road game in two years. The oddsmakers have this game as a pick’em and expect it to be a 27-24 type game.
It’s a game FSU CAN win if the offense shows up on the road. Here’s a look at the Florida Gators by the numbers. Their defense is better than their offense. They have the No. 70 offense and No. 39 defense, according to FEI advanced metrics.
They average 19.9 ppg and allow 24.3. It’s not an explosive offense, only averaging 5.31 yards per play and four yards per rush. They convert third downs at a 33 percent clip and score touchdowns 60 percent of the time against FBS teams. DJ Lagway has been a turnover machine with 13 interceptions and 13 touchdowns this season. He has been sacked 17 times this year.
Defensively, they allow 5.61 yards per play and 3.94 yards per rush. They allow opposing offenses to convert third downs 43.95 percent of the time. They are vulnerable against the pass, allowing a 64 percent completion percentage at 7.9 yards per attempt.
Florida will probably be motivated for this game. It’s a home game, and they can prevent FSU from becoming bowl-eligible again. It sounds like a broken record, but if the FSU offense could find some early success, it would be a game-changer. This Florida team would probably quit if FSU got off to a hot start. That never happens with FSU on the road, so we’ll probably have to sit through another gut-wrenching game where FSU finds a way to lose.