FSU football: Noles open as slight betting favorite over Louisville

No. 4 FSU football dispatched the rival Florida Gators 24-15 Saturday night to cover the spread and finish the regular season (12-0, 8-0 ACC). The Noles will turn their attention to the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship game Saturday night.

The Cardinals lost their regular season finale rivalry game against the Kentucky Wildcats 38-31, turning the ball over three times.

FSU football would have been large betting favorites over the Cardinals if Jordan Travis were available. However, that’s not the case, and oddsmakers saw what the FSU offense looked like with Tate Rodemaker at QB.

The updated betting lines have the Noles as slight betting favorites at -3.5, with the over/under points total at 51.5. Those odds imply a 27-24 win for the Noles.

Most of the betting action has been on the Cardinals, with about 89 percent of the bets going in their direction. That usually means the public is all over them(not a good sign for them).

Thoughts

I still like FSU’s chances to beat Louisville on Saturday night. FSU’s defense will arguably be the best defense they’ve played all season. Their quarterback isn’t special or mobile, and he has struggled against the better defenses they have played.

Louisville has a good receiver and running back in Jamari Thrash and Jawhar Jordan. However, FSU has played offenses with just as good or better playmakers this season and done well. Louisville will give it up turnover-wise, as they have four games with 2+ turnovers.

The success in this game will depend on the FSU offense. I think Tate Rodemaker played well in the role given by the coaching staff Saturday night.

The game in Charlotte won’t be anywhere near as intimidating as the Swamp. FSU also had poor field position for much of the first half against Florida, which hampered things. It should comfort Rodemaker that Louisville is the team he torched last season in FSU’s comeback win on the road.

I think we could see a more relaxed Rodemaker on Saturday night, which could make all the difference in the world. Stay tuned for more coverage and analysis of the game this week!