FSU football: Noles projected to play Louisville in ACC Championship

FSU football is 4-0 through one of the toughest stretches on its 2024 schedule without playing anywhere near its best game.

The Louisville Cardinals are also undefeated through its first five games. Louisville is a team I noted in the preseason that had a soft schedule and could look better on paper than the actual product.

They trounced Boston College and edged past NC State last week in ACC play. They play No. 10 Notre Dame this weekend, but that game doesn’t count toward ACC standings.

Afterward, they will play Pittsburgh, Duke(who will likely not have its starting QB), Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Miami to close out ACC play.

The only team they’ll likely be an underdog against is Miami. It’s why they project to play the Noles in the ACC Championship game in Charlotte.

The Noles play Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Duke(who will likely be without its starting QB), Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh in their next five games. The only other ACC game they have will be against Miami, so FSU shouldn’t lose more than one if any, ACC game.

Miami will need to get through North Carolina, Clemson, FSU, and Louisville without more than one loss. Good luck with that Miami, which also gives Louisville a higher probability to make it to the ACC Championship game, even if they lose to Miami.

Louisville ranks No. 25 in the AP Poll and No. 37 overall in FEI advanced metrics. They have the No. 26 offense and No. 59 defense via those metrics.

The Noles rank No. 12 overall, with the No. 14 offense and No. 26 defense. Again, these numbers are with the Noles playing without starters on both sides for multiple games.

It’ll be interesting to see how the next few weeks shape the ACC standings. We’ll know who’s a contender or pretender by October 22nd.